Market Breadth Data******************************
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
A look at a historical intraday phenomenon.
Shortly after 1 p.m. the buying pressure on the NYSE and NASDAQ effectively dropped to zero. That's when the bulk of the intraday drop occurred.
By comparison, on both September 17 and 20, 2001, the buying pressure index never dropped below 3.
(This kinda dispells the computer glitch story, doesn't it?)
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Sunday, February 11, 2007
There is a prevailing misconception about technical analysis (TA), that it looks only at price, patterns and volume, and therefore is ineffective. Nothing could be further from the truth. While price, patterns and volume are an essential part of TA, there is a lot more to it than that. In fact, if you look through the charts posted here during the last 6 months, you’ll notice that few are analyzing price or volume alone.
The chart above looks at the OEX from the perspective of market internals. Do you think it tells us something that fundamental analysts haven’t seen yet?
Friday, February 09, 2007
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
Monday, February 05, 2007
Saturday, February 03, 2007
This is a copy of the Jan. 7th chart updated as of the close of yesterday.
As you can see, the SPX followed perfectly the sequence suggested 4 weeks ago.
Not only that, but interim comments identified beforehand short-term cycles unlikely to affect the main trend.
Moreover, the addition of intraday cycles proved to be invaluable in identifying turning points for intraday moves. So, those who took the time to visit the site got a comprehensive array of multiple timeframe cycle information.
The overbought/oversold indicator I mention from time to time also played its role in isolating the correct turning points. Speaking of which, this indicator is officially in overbought territory, as I expected it to be in my analysis two days ago. Looking at the CIT dates sequence for February, it has some interesting implications for the future direction of the SPX.
Which brings me to my next point:
As of this weekend the CIT dates, short-term cycles (sc), intraday cycle forecasts, overbought/oversold alerts, and other analysis regarding future market trends will be delivered by subscription only. The blog will reflect the history of past calls made to subscribers, so newcomers can make an informed decision about the merits of subscribing.
For half the price of an e-mini point a week, you can have access to a concise and proprietary market perspective. There is a lot more to technical analysis (TA) than cycles, and I use it myself on a daily basis. However, it has never been my goal to write lengthy treatises on TA every day, but to provide an original perspective which could help others in their decision-making.
Welcome to all new subscribers
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Even in a one-way market there was something to hang our hats onto.
In the process, the SPX managed to hit an important target, and is one day away from getting overbought. An overbought market tomorrow will fit perfectly with the next CIT date.
A quick note re. the daily and weekly signals on the second and third calendar.
I stopped updating the daily signals once the market entered a trading range. Since the signals are generated by a simple trend-following system, they are inevitably subject to whipsaws in trading range markets, and there is no need to clutter the calendar with false signals. Different trading environments require different trading tools. Normally, the signal should have been changed again yesterday, but I’ll have my thoughts on the subject after the week-end.
With regard to the weekly signals: we’ve never even come close to a sell signal yet. And that would certainly qualify as one of the longest buy periods for that particular signal.
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