Market Breadth Data******************************

Wednesday, February 28, 2007


Let's just call the weekly COMPX
Exhibit D

A look at a historical intraday phenomenon.
Shortly after 1 p.m. the buying pressure on the NYSE and NASDAQ effectively dropped to zero. That's when the bulk of the intraday drop occurred.
By comparison, on both September 17 and 20, 2001, the buying pressure index never dropped below 3.

(This kinda dispells the computer glitch story, doesn't it?)

Saturday, February 24, 2007


In case you were wondering what happened to the CIT dates -- I updated the calendar as of Feb. 21st.
Subscribers received the chart above beforehand and were advised to expect an acceleration of the sell-off on the 23rd.

Thursday, February 22, 2007


A view of the OEX from a NYSE New Hi/New Lo ratio perspective

Saturday, February 17, 2007

Three charts for the three day week-end.
Exhibits A,B and C.



Thursday, February 15, 2007


Here's a good one from the Charting Department.
Note that on 2 prior occasions in the not too distant past, the relative strength underperformance of the NDX v SPX has lead to corrections.

Yesterday's intraday cycles and calendar update. Subscribers knew a week and a half in advance when to expect a resumption of the trend.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007


Here's the result of today's intraday forecast.

Sunday, February 11, 2007


There is a prevailing misconception about technical analysis (TA), that it looks only at price, patterns and volume, and therefore is ineffective. Nothing could be further from the truth. While price, patterns and volume are an essential part of TA, there is a lot more to it than that. In fact, if you look through the charts posted here during the last 6 months, you’ll notice that few are analyzing price or volume alone.

The chart above looks at the OEX from the perspective of market internals. Do you think it tells us something that fundamental analysts haven’t seen yet?

Friday, February 09, 2007

Visitors to the site shouldn’t be surprised that the CIT date signals were not updated this week. That’s because there were none.

Subscribers, however, knew in advance when the sideways move would end and the sell-off would begin, and already know the next CIT date.

Thursday, February 08, 2007


This is the result of today's intraday forecast.
The blue lines are a new feature, and mark the end of certain intraday cycles.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007


These are the results of today's intraday cycles forecast.

Subscribers are given these numbers up to a week in advance,
so they can incorporate them into their trading or charting software.

Monday, February 05, 2007


Last week I mentioned that the markets are reaching overbought levels.
This is where we stand right now.
Wouldn't it be nice to know when the next SPX turn will take place,
and when it will end?
Subscribers already know that, and the answer may surprise you.

Saturday, February 03, 2007



This is a copy of the Jan. 7th chart updated as of the close of yesterday.
As you can see, the SPX followed perfectly the sequence suggested 4 weeks ago.
Not only that, but interim comments identified beforehand short-term cycles unlikely to affect the main trend.

Moreover, the addition of intraday cycles proved to be invaluable in identifying turning points for intraday moves. So, those who took the time to visit the site got a comprehensive array of multiple timeframe cycle information.

The overbought/oversold indicator I mention from time to time also played its role in isolating the correct turning points. Speaking of which, this indicator is officially in overbought territory, as I expected it to be in my analysis two days ago. Looking at the CIT dates sequence for February, it has some interesting implications for the future direction of the SPX.

Which brings me to my next point:
As of this weekend the CIT dates, short-term cycles (sc), intraday cycle forecasts, overbought/oversold alerts, and other analysis regarding future market trends will be delivered by subscription only. The blog will reflect the history of past calls made to subscribers, so newcomers can make an informed decision about the merits of subscribing.

For half the price of an e-mini point a week, you can have access to a concise and proprietary market perspective. There is a lot more to technical analysis (TA) than cycles, and I use it myself on a daily basis. However, it has never been my goal to write lengthy treatises on TA every day, but to provide an original perspective which could help others in their decision-making.

Welcome to all new subscribers

Friday, February 02, 2007


There is so much one can hope to accomplish in a narrow range market.

Times to watch today:
9:45, 10:45, 12:30, 14:45

Thursday, February 01, 2007


Even in a one-way market there was something to hang our hats onto.
In the process, the SPX managed to hit an important target, and is one day away from getting overbought. An overbought market tomorrow will fit perfectly with the next CIT date.

A quick note re. the daily and weekly signals on the second and third calendar.
I stopped updating the daily signals once the market entered a trading range. Since the signals are generated by a simple trend-following system, they are inevitably subject to whipsaws in trading range markets, and there is no need to clutter the calendar with false signals. Different trading environments require different trading tools. Normally, the signal should have been changed again yesterday, but I’ll have my thoughts on the subject after the week-end.

With regard to the weekly signals: we’ve never even come close to a sell signal yet. And that would certainly qualify as one of the longest buy periods for that particular signal.

This is the intraday forecast for today:
10:00, 10:30, 11:45, 12:10, 13:25, 15:05

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