Market Breadth Data******************************

Monday, February 29, 2016

$SPY Pattern and Trend

As long as the SPX trades above the 50% retracement and the 1 x 1 angle, the daily trend remains up:

and risk is on:

Friday, February 26, 2016

$SPY Two Competing Views

Two similar but different trend-following systems, two different views. Which one will prove to be right in the end ?

Glass half full (ma cross-over):

Glass half empty (MACD):

Bulls still retain the upper hand according to the monthly momentum chart:

but are noticeably weaker (below 50%) on the weekly:

For the curious by nature, this is what it looks like when both trend-following systems are in agreement:

(Chart courtesy of CIT Toolbox for TradingView)

$SPY Trend and Support Update

Support at 1900 held and the SP500 uptrend continues:

It's also worth noting that Bulls are gaining the upper hand once again:

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

$SPY Pattern and Trend Update

The SP500 is retreating from resistance and is likely to find support at 1900 or 1870 - 1880:

The daily chart is risk neutral, so far:

while risk remains on on the weekly:

$SPY Pattern and Trend

The swings didn't unfold in the exact same manner, but the time and price ranges remained eerily similar:

Sunday, February 21, 2016

$SPY Price Targets 2016

BI recently published the SP500 2016 price target forecasts of 18 Wall Street strategists. As we've done in the past, we'll compare them to our technical targets obtained from using OddsTrader's channels. Here's the list:

It's worth noting that only UBS dared to publish a downside projection. The targets highlighted in yellow fall within OddsTrader's range. The channel targets come from two separate channels with different duration (a composite model is shown below):

Thursday, February 18, 2016

$FANG Bullish Action

Our FANG composite symbol (FB, AMZN, NFLX and GOOG) turned around a day ahead of the major indices but with only a 4.4% rise is trailing the averages and 65% of the stocks in the NDX100 (see bottom of the page):

$SPY and Sentiment

In three short days sentiment went from negative/oversold to super bullish/overbought:

The size of the next pull-back should help determine the true nature of the January - February '16 price action:

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

$SPY Pattern and Trend Update

The bull/bear divide at 1880 remains the key  support level to watch. Daily channel upside target at 1910, resistance at 1947:

Sunday, February 14, 2016

$SPY and Historical Correlations

The years with strongest correlation (86%) to 2016, so far, show the negative trend continuing for a few more weeks:

(Data courtesy of OT Seasonal)

For the time being 1800 and 1880 are the key levels to keep an eye on.

Friday, February 12, 2016

$SPY Make or Break Time

Make or break time for the SP500:

A break below the January support level could have serious implications:

1880 remains the minimum upside target for a show of strength.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

$DIA and Crash Cycle

The last two corrections were proportionate (time and % decline wise) to the average DJIA correction cycle for the last 130 years:

A break below 15370 opens the door to much lower targets: 13800, 12400 and 12000

$SPY CIT Date Forecast

The e-mini futures validating so far yesterday's CIT forecast:

The e-mini, however, needs to climb above 1880 for a real show of strength.
Market breadth reached oversold levels during the last down-swing, clearing the way for a sideways/up move:

Saturday, February 06, 2016

$SPY Pattern Follow-Up

The SP500 pattern continues unfolding according to script. The next CIT date is February 9th (source: CIT Dates Calendar):

The FANG quartet (FB, AMZN, NFLX & GOOG) continues to lead on the way down and is testing the August-September '15 bottom:
/scroll to the bottom of the page to view real-time FANG composite chart/

Friday, February 05, 2016

$SPY Pattern and Trend Update

As long as the SP500 continues mimicking the August '15 pattern, the short-term bottoming scenario should be given the benefit of the doubt:

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

$SPY and Technical Levels

The SP500 is showing great respect for all the key technical levels:

$SPY and Market Breadth

Market breadth (orange line) continues to diverge negatively from index prices:

Monday, February 01, 2016

$SPY Weekly Cycles

During the first week of March '16 the SP500 will experience the convergence of two different weekly cycles which, in the past, have accurately connected swing highs and lows:

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