Market Breadth Data******************************
Friday, December 23, 2016
Sunday, December 18, 2016
$SPY and $QQQ Trading Parameters
SPY and QQQ long/short trading parameters for the current week, assuming no sudden changes in volatility.
SPY upside targets: 227.7 and 228.8; downside support at: 222.9 and 221.7, pivot at 225.8, risk/reward: 53%
QQQ upside targets: 121.4 and 121.9; downside support at: 118.2 and 117.3, pivot at 120, risk/reward: 66%:
SPY upside targets: 227.7 and 228.8; downside support at: 222.9 and 221.7, pivot at 225.8, risk/reward: 53%
QQQ upside targets: 121.4 and 121.9; downside support at: 118.2 and 117.3, pivot at 120, risk/reward: 66%:
Saturday, December 17, 2016
$SPY Seasonal Pattern
The SP500 continues following the seasonal pattern, and after the sideways/down phase projected for the past week, is entering one of the most consistently bullish weeks of the year. Therefore, the expectation is for a sideways/up phase to follow:
Resistance at 2280, closest support level at 2145.
Resistance at 2280, closest support level at 2145.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
$SPY Swing Pattern and Trend
The SP500 continues following the swing pattern from the previous two rallies:
Immediate support at 2245, resistance at 2280.
The average duration of the last two upswings was 40 days, or the end of 2016.
Immediate support at 2245, resistance at 2280.
The average duration of the last two upswings was 40 days, or the end of 2016.
Sunday, December 11, 2016
$SPY Seasonality
From a seasonal point of view, next week is one of the weakest, and the week after one of the strongest of the year. The SP500 has advanced exactly 900 degrees up from the February lows and is perfectly balanced price and time wise, suggesting that a short-term sideways/down phase is to be expected:
Saturday, December 10, 2016
$SPY Pattern and Trend
As mentioned a month ago, a break above resistance at 2180 opens the door for a higher swing and year-end price target:
2213 and 2180 become support now.
2213 and 2180 become support now.
Friday, December 09, 2016
FANG Channel and Trend
The FANG's rallied on cue, and the longevity of the NDX bull run will depend to a large extent on their ability to keep pushing against the upper channel line:
For daily FANG updates please check bottom of the page.
For daily FANG updates please check bottom of the page.
Tuesday, December 06, 2016
$SPY Bulls and Bears
Unless there is a sharp and immediate drop, the bears may be in trouble, as market breadth is oversold, and showing tentative signs of improvement:
Even the FANGs, after a three wave decline, seem to have found their footing and are gathering strength:
Even the FANGs, after a three wave decline, seem to have found their footing and are gathering strength:
Sunday, December 04, 2016
$SPY Pattern and Trend
The SP500 continues following the bullish angle:
Resistance at 2214, support at 2180.
Weekly liquidity shrunk but remains positive:
Resistance at 2214, support at 2180.
Weekly liquidity shrunk but remains positive:
Friday, December 02, 2016
Thursday, December 01, 2016
$SPY Angles and Trend
The SP500 stalled precisely at the 1 x 1 angle:
Closest support levels at 2193 and 2180.
Resistance at 2214.
Closest support levels at 2193 and 2180.
Resistance at 2214.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
$SPY Pattern and Trend
For the bulls, 2193 and 2180 remain key SP500 support levels to keep an eye on:
Weekly and daily channel resistance at 2210.
Weekly and daily channel resistance at 2210.
Friday, November 25, 2016
$SPY Swing Comparison
The comparison between the current SP500 upswing and recent rallies suggests that despite trader's uneasiness with the longevity of the post-election rally, there may be a lot more upside left.
Especially, if the August '16 highs turn into long-term support.
The average of the February and June rallies is 40 days which, when projected forward, points to the end of '16.
Especially, if the August '16 highs turn into long-term support.
The average of the February and June rallies is 40 days which, when projected forward, points to the end of '16.
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
$SPY and Liquidity
Liquidity analysis shows that following a period of post-election exuberance, caution is prevailing at this point. Those who bailed in the middle of the rally will be left waiting for an entry point:
The FANGs are at the early stage of a third wave down (see bottom of the page)
The FANGs are at the early stage of a third wave down (see bottom of the page)
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Sunday, November 20, 2016
Friday, November 18, 2016
$SPY Caution Going Forward
The daily upswing is getting long in the tooth and has reached the 2 x 1 angle target. This warrants caution going forward:
For short-term swing traders the reversal zone is 2175 - 2180:
For short-term swing traders the reversal zone is 2175 - 2180:
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
$SPY Decision Time
The SP500 is at a critical juncture wedged between the bullish angle, which ultimately points to a 2240 year-end price target, and long-term resistance at 2180:
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Friday, November 11, 2016
$SPY Short and Long Term
The daily SPX is still following the bullish angle with resistance at 2180:
The monthly chart points to a much higher target for 2017/2018 which, however, is very consistent with average yearly gains for the index:
The monthly chart points to a much higher target for 2017/2018 which, however, is very consistent with average yearly gains for the index:
FANG Post Election Jitters
The FANGs took a big hit along with the Qs yesterday, and remain in a down-trend:
For daily chart updates see bottom of the page.
For daily chart updates see bottom of the page.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
$SPY Election Surprise
Despite the election shocker, the weekly lower channel proved to be an excellent long entry point for the Dec. futures:
Sunday, November 06, 2016
$QQQ Pattern and Trend
Friday marked the 9th day of consecutive declines for the Qs. In their history, there have been only two other consecutive declines of similar duration or longer.
Therefore, it's worth repeating what we observed at the beginning of the year following a 7 day consecutive decline:
Therefore, it's worth repeating what we observed at the beginning of the year following a 7 day consecutive decline:
Here's what happened following those rare uninterrupted declines lasting seven days or longer:
7-day decline ending Jan 30, 1990, followed by a 12-day 6.28% rally
7-day decline ending Nov 12, 1997, followed by a 12-day 10.12% rally
8-day decline ending May 18, 2006; the swing bottom came in 3 days later, and the Qs bounced up for 6 days and a 3% gain.
8-day decline ending June 13, 2006, followed by a 2-day rebound and a gain of 3.75%. The market bottomed a month later.
7-day decline ending Sept. 9, 2008, followed by a 2-day rebound, 2.7% gain.
8-day decline ending Oct 10, 2008, followed by a 1-day 12% rebound. The index bottomed a month later on Nov 20th.
11-day decline ending July 2, 2010, followed by a 8-day 7.3% rally
9-day decline ending May 18, 2012, followed by a 6-day 3.37% rally. The index bottomed three days later.
That's a 6-day 6% bounce average.
Friday, November 04, 2016
Thursday, November 03, 2016
Wednesday, November 02, 2016
$SPY Pattern and Trend
The SP500 continues sliding along the bottom of the down-sloping channel:
while daily market internals are reaching oversold extremes.
No change in support/resistance levels.
Time-wise, price is approaching a cycle through:
while daily market internals are reaching oversold extremes.
No change in support/resistance levels.
Time-wise, price is approaching a cycle through:
$SPY Pattern and Trend
After support at 2120 failed shortly after the open, the SP500 bounced off the next, lower support level:
Lower support at 2075, resistance at 2120 and 2150.
Lower support at 2075, resistance at 2120 and 2150.
Tuesday, November 01, 2016
$SPY Pattern and Trend
Very tepid reaction following the bounce from support so far.
However,there's plenty of room and time for an upside follow through since daily market internals are just getting oversold:
SPX support at 2120, first resistance at 2150.
However,there's plenty of room and time for an upside follow through since daily market internals are just getting oversold:
SPX support at 2120, first resistance at 2150.
Friday, October 28, 2016
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Sunday, October 23, 2016
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
$QQQ Pattern and Sentiment
The Qs are testing key resistance level and showing signs of improving market breadth:
The SP500 continues hugging the uptrend angle and bouncing between our year-end channel targets:
The SP500 continues hugging the uptrend angle and bouncing between our year-end channel targets:
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