Market Breadth Data******************************

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

$SPY and Seasonality

The worst seasonality for the year is coming to an end and the fact that the SP500 is bouncing off the lows and made it back within the yellow box is an encouraging sign:


Tuesday, September 29, 2015

$SPY Support Levels

The SP500 closed on important trendline support. A break below the August lows should result in another 100 - 150 SPX point drop:



Monday, September 28, 2015

$SPY Price and Time Cycles

Similar price range for the SP500 so far:













The question is whether the time cycles will keep repeating as well.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

$DIA Bear Market Stats

DJIA bear market % declines since 1885:

















--  we're here

--  average

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Thursday, September 24, 2015

$SPY and Interest Rates

It's nice to know that Yellen is fully committed to fulfilling the Fed's third mandate objective (to keep stock prices in check):



So much so, that she had a medical emergency when she noticed that the futures didn't start rebounding immediately at the beginning of her speech. 

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

$SPY Bull Flag

The appearance of a minor Bull flag should help keep SPY in the box:


Monday, September 21, 2015

$SPY Trading Box

With the Fed out of the way it seems that the SP500 will be stuck in a 100 point trading range for a while:










or at least until the Qs make up their mind:


Saturday, September 19, 2015

Thursday, September 17, 2015

$SPY and Pre-FOMC Positioning

Judging by market action before the FOMC announcement today, the majority is expecting positive news from Yellen & Co:












and the slightest disappointment should result in a run for the exits.

A toll order for the FED, considering that "expert" opinion is about evenly split on whether they should raise rates or not, and whether that would have a positive or negative effect on the economy.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

$QQQ in No-man's Land

Ahead of the FOMC meeting the major averages remain trapped in no-man's land:














and hopeful longs are one step away from hitting the panic button:












Fed to the rescue ?

Sunday, September 13, 2015

$DJIA Consecutive Up/Dn Years

Here's and overview of the consecutive up/dn years (when the close on Dec 31st was higher/lower than the close on Dec 31st the year before) for the DJIA since 1885:












The longest streak of Up years is 9 (1991 - 1999).
The longest streak of Dn years is 4 (1929 - 1932).
The current streak (as of Dec '14) is the second longest (6 years).
Before that, there were two streaks of 5 Up years, one of which ended with the market crash in 1929. The crash of '87 happened in the middle of the second 5 Up year streak (1985 - 1989).
The average (excluding years when the DJIA changed direction immediately after 1 year) is 3.25 for Up years, and 2.33 for Dn years.
Long Up streaks don't necessarily get followed immediately by long Dn streaks.
For the last 130 years the ratio of Up to Dn years is close to 2:1.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

$SPY Trading Range

The SP500 spent 8 months, between February and August '15, trading in a 100 point range .
It has spent the last three weeks trading in a new 100 point trading range:









The FOMC decision on Thursday has the potential to propel the index out of this range.

Friday, September 11, 2015

$SPY Inside Week

So far the futures point to a second inside week in a row. This is a pretty rare event, which in the past has preceded mostly negative results. It is also indicative of a prolonged period of indecision and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting next week:


Thursday, September 10, 2015

$VIX and the Outlook for Volatility

Periods of low volatility (blue shaded rectangles) have been followed in the past by periods of high volatility (clear rectangles) which suggests that high VIX readings are here to stay:













The yellow shaded rectangles replicate the duration of the last two high volatility periods.

PS. A week later, GS comes to a similar conclusion.

Wednesday, September 09, 2015

$SPY Technical Levels

Range trading at its best. SPY lacking a catalyst to break above/below clear technical levels:











The Qs also painted an outside day reversal candle and both indices are persistent in showing strong similarities with the '11 correction:


For that to continue to be the case, however, another positive reversal should follow shortly:






























Europe Before the Open

European markets benefiting from very strong market breadth for the second day in a row:






































(Source: MktInternals)

with the DAX closing in on the July '08 lows:


Tuesday, September 08, 2015

$SPY Pattern, Trend and Indecision Zone

Just like last Thursday, ahead of the job report, the SP500 is stuck between key support/resistance levels which define the current balance of power between bulls and bears:









A successful break above resistance should lead to a retest of the August 28th high.

Europe ahead of the open

European market breadth very strong ahead of the US open:

























(Source: MktInternals)

Friday, September 04, 2015

$SPY Bull/Bear Divide

195 is shaping to be the new Bull/Bear divide for the SPY (1950 for the SP500):


$SPY Pattern, Trend and Indecision

A picture of indecision:









Ahead of Friday's job report, SPY finished the Thursday session stuck between support/resistance levels.

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

$SPY Technical Levels

SPY is bouncing between well defined technical levels with the focus point being last week's gap zone:










$SPY Trading Range

The failure of the SP500 to stay within the '15 trading box suggests that the index is entering a new trading range/box:









A break below the new support level will open the door for a retest of much lower levels:









with 160 (SPY)/1600(SPX) being the most prominent.

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