SPY Seasonality

 

SPY heads into a seasonally mixed period, Over the past 10 years this week averaged -0.1%, a 1std of 2.3% and closed higher 60% of the time. October has averaged 1.1%, 1std of 4.5, and has closed positive 54% of the time.

Levels to watch: 735 and 788.5

Max pain 766, Gamma wall 770, Gamma flip above 774, Put wall 755

At 763 SPY sits below the 770 call oi peak and the max pain level, but above the 755 put oi peak. Strikes 760 and 765 are showing unusual volume and dealers are hedge short stock. Price is also below the gamma flip, where dealer hedging tends to amplify moves. The expected move through October 16th is +/- 2.7%, with implied volatility 13% near term and 15% longer term.

The daily Trend indicator is down, while the weekly is flat in a downturn.

SPY Market Pulse Ahead of ISM and NFP

 

SPY is trending lower in both (daily and weekly) timeframes.

Catalyst risk is immediate. ISM Manufacturing today at 14:00 UTC, then Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow (Oct 2, 12:30 UTC) — forecast 90K vs 162K prior. That's a sharply weaker expected print, and it lands inside the Oct 16 option horizon. Setups taken into NFP are coin flips on the number, not on the chart.
According to options market, the event premium is in the front expiry. ATM IV by expiry: Oct 2 (1 DTE) 19.28% → Oct 9 14.37% → Oct 16 14.19% → Oct 23 13.70% → Nov 20 13.96%. That Oct 2 spike is the NFP print — the market is paying up for tomorrow's number and nothing beyond it. Your Oct 16 expiry is not pricing elevated event risk. At 14.19% it sits at the low end of the curve, essentially flat against Oct 23 and Nov 20. If the expectation is that the mid-October chain to carry a fat event premium, it doesn't.

In summary, the market is treating NFP as a one-day event (Oct 2), not a regime shift. Oct 16 is priced for a ±2.26% drift with a downside skew — a normal, unexcited mid-term chain.