The Saturday Macro

 

The Takeaway A violent week of whiplash: stocks snapped a four-week losing streak with their best week since August, but the rally was built on quicksand — a 10-year yield at 5.15%, a 19-month-high dollar, and a Fed that markets now price as a near-certainty to hike again in December. The economy is hot enough to keep the Fed tightening and fragile enough that the AI trade — the market's engine — just lost its driver. Tuesday is the hinge: Nvidia reports earnings for the first time without Jensen Huang, and retail sales land the same morning. The Economy Hot Jobs, Sticky Prices, a Housing Freeze The past week delivered the two numbers that now run everything. Jobs came in scorching. October payrolls rose 165,000 — more than double the ~65,000 expected — with unemployment ticking down to 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.4% on the month, 3.1% on the year. September was revised up to 60,000 and August to 186,000. The three-month payroll average is now ~137,000, comfortably above what's needed to hold unemployment steady. Professional and business services added 70,000 alone. This is not a labor market that needs help. Inflation refused to cooperate. October CPI rose 0.4% on the month (core +0.3%), and September's headline print was 3.7% year-on-year. Then Friday's PPI landed the harder blow: producer prices up 6.5% year-on-year, the hottest in nearly four years. The pipeline is still passing costs through — which is exactly what a Fed chair who says inflation has run above target "for close to six years" does not want to hear. Housing is the weak spot. Existing home sales fell to a 3.75 million annual rate, the lowest since August 2010. Five-percent-plus mortgage rates against a 5.15% 10-year are doing what rate hikes are supposed to do — to housing, at least. The picture: growth is holding, labor is tight, inflation is re-accelerating at the producer level, and the consumer is the last thing standing between this economy and a Fed that keeps finding reasons to tighten. Geopolitics The War That Won't End, and the Strait That Won't Stay Open The US–Iran war, now in its ninth month since it began on February 28, entered a strange new phase this week: both sides declared something close to victory while the shooting continued. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that Operation Epic Fury, the US–Israel air and naval campaign, had concluded because its objectives were achieved — but the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains "in full force." President Trump said Wednesday the US had won and ending the war was "just a question of when we want to end it," then reversed course Thursday on Truth Social, saying the US does not need a deal with Iran at all. Meanwhile the Strait of Hormuz is more dangerous than at any point in the war. Four tankers were hit by explosions on Wednesday and Thursday — two supertankers left burning with more than four million barrels aboard, two more striking mines. The International Maritime Organization has verified more than 130 attacks on vessels since the war began; 37 came in October, the highest monthly tally yet, and at least 10 more in the first ten days of November. Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi energy sites the same day. A seafarer was killed on November 5 aboard the Velos Sapphire. Diplomacy is alive but stalled. Trump met Qatar's prime minister — the key mediator — at the White House on Monday. Mediators have floated a two-day proposal under which the US would lift its blockade; it has not been accepted, and Tehran is holding to seven conditions, including no removal of enriched nuclear material. Iran's president says Tehran is prepared to negotiate an end to "a prolonged state of neither war nor peace." Market read: oil spiked 3.3% on Thursday's tanker news, then gave it all back by Friday. Traders have learned this war's rhythm — every escalation is real, and every escalation so far has been absorbed. The risk is the one that breaks the pattern: a closure, even temporary, of a strait that normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil. Also on the board: OPEC+ is pumping hard (see Oil), and trade policy remains a background drag — the April tariff shock is still the reference point for the bond market's worst weeks. US Politics Divided Government is Here — and the Debt Ceiling Clock is Ticking The midterms are over, and the result was a sweep nobody in Washington had priced. Democrats won both chambers on November 3: the House, with 256 seats called to Republicans' 168 (11 still uncalled), and the Senate, flipping eight Republican seats for a 54–44 majority including two independents who caucus with Democrats. Alaska's Senate race is still uncalled. Democrats also flipped five governorships, including Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa and Nevada. What it means for markets: ·        Gridlock, for two years. The new Democratic majorities take office in January 2027. They fall well short of the two-thirds needed to override a presidential veto, and short of a filibuster-proof Senate majority. Expect no major fiscal legislation — no new spending packages, no tax overhaul — just executive action and standoffs. ·        The debt ceiling is the next fight. PNC's post-election note flags the most likely consequence of divided government: an extended debt-ceiling standoff that goes down to the deadline, similar to 2023. That is a slow-burn risk for Treasuries, not an immediate one, but it now sits on the calendar for 2027. ·        Regulation and investigations shift. A Democratic House means oversight hearings — Nvidia's Jensen Huang was already asked to appear before three House committees on November 18, and that request now lands in a different political context. ·        The lame-duck session matters. The current Republican Congress still governs until January. Watch for any last-minute fiscal or defense moves tied to the Iran war, and for how the administration uses executive authority while it still has a friendly Congress. The market's verdict so far: remarkably calm. Stocks rallied through the week and the bond market barely blinked at the result — gridlock, after all, is the outcome bond vigilantes usually prefer. The repricing, if it comes, arrives with the first real standoff. The Fed The Hike Nobody Wanted to Price is Now the Base Case Chair Kevin Warsh's Fed has done something markets spent the year refusing to believe: it is hiking into a slowdown scare, and it may not be done. The facts: the funds rate sits at 3.75%–4.00% after September's quarter-point hike. The October 27–28 meeting held rates steady on a 10–2 vote. Since then, every data point has pushed the same direction. Hot payrolls (+165,000), hot CPI (+0.4%), hotter PPI (+6.5% year-on-year) — and a chorus of hawkish Fed voices. Governor Christopher Waller said after CPI that a half-point hike in December "should be considered." San Francisco's Mary Daly said Friday the Fed would need to raise rates; Boston's Susan Collins said policy would tighten further. The market has surrendered: a December 8–9 hike is now priced at roughly 98–99% across Kalshi and Polymarket, with a 25bp move at ~88% and a 50bp move at ~10%. A hold is ~4%; a cut is ~1%. Bloomberg reported Friday the Fed is on track to hike in December and may hike again in January — where a further hike is already priced near 57%. The December meeting carries a new dot plot and projections, so it's not just the move, it's the path. The question for the next three weeks: does anything — a soft retail sales print, a dovish turn in the FOMC minutes on Wednesday — give the committee cover to go 25 instead of 50, or to signal a pause after December? Right now, nothing in the data is offering that cover. One footnote for the watch: the December hike odds were ~73% as recently as late October. The repricing since — roughly 25 points in two weeks — is the single biggest driver of everything else in this briefing. Oil The Glut is Winning — until the Next Tanker Burns Brent settled Friday at $95.84, WTI at $88.56. Both fell about 2.5% on the week — a second straight weekly decline — despite Thursday's 3.3% spike on the Hormuz tanker attacks. The week's range tells the story: Brent touched $91.49 on Tuesday, its lowest since mid-September, before the war premium came back. The supply side is overwhelming the war premium. OPEC+ output surged 1.96 million barrels a day in October to 27.16 million, with Saudi Arabia leading — production jumped 26% month-on-month to 10.56 million barrels a day, back near pre-war levels. The IEA now expects the global market to return to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, reversing its earlier deficit call, with supply averaging ~105 million barrels a day against demand of ~102.3 million. US production hit a record ~14 million barrels a day, and the EIA reported a 4.66-million-barrel inventory build against an expected 1.1-million draw. The tension: the physical market is awash in crude, but the waterway that moves it is a war zone. Brent's $7 premium over WTI is the market charging for exactly that risk. Levels to watch next week: $98 above, $91 below on Brent. A break of $91 on quiet Hormuz news would confirm the glut story; a spike through $98 on another attack would confirm the war story. Both stories are true right now — the market just has to decide which one sets the price. The Dollar The Strongest It's Been in 19 Months The dollar index (DXY) closed the week at 103.41, up about 1.1% on the week, after touching a 19-month high of 103.42. The euro fell to a 1.5-year low; dollar–yen pushed toward 159.8. This is a rates story, not a haven story. A 5.15% 10-year against a world where the Bank of England just hiked to 4.00% (November 5, 8–1 vote) and the ECB is going nowhere is a widening differential that pulls capital in. The dollar is also feeding on the same dynamic hurting everything else: higher-for-longer US rates, a Fed that is hiking while others pause, and risk assets that need dollar liquidity. What the dollar is telling us: the market believes the Fed, and it believes the US economy can take the medicine. The risk to that read is the same as everywhere else — if the December hike tips something over, the dollar's strength turns from a vote of confidence into a headwind for earnings, emerging markets, and commodities all at once. Rates The Bond Rout That Won't Quit The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.15%, up nearly 30 basis points on the week — its biggest weekly rise in 19 months and, by one measure, its worst week since the April 2025 tariff shock. The 5-year sits at 4.98%, the 30-year at 5.48%. The curve is bear-steepening: long rates rising faster than short ones, the classic sign of a market repricing inflation and supply rather than just Fed policy. What's driving it: the same trio — hot jobs, hot PPI, and a Fed that keeps talking about hiking. Jim Bianco noted the 10-year has risen 25bp-plus in a week only four other times in recent memory. This is not a tantrum; it's a repricing, and it's global — yields are rising across developed markets. The tension: every leg of the macro story is pulling rates the same way right now. Growth is holding (higher real rates), inflation is sticky (higher breakevens), the Fed is hiking (higher front end), and a divided government heading into a debt-ceiling fight means more supply, not less. The only thing that has historically broken a move like this is something breaking — credit, housing, or equities. Housing is already bending. Watch credit spreads: so far they have not blown out, which is why stocks could rally this week. If spreads start widening into year-end, the bond market will have called the turn before equities admit it. Stock Markets Best Week Since August — with the AI Trade Decapitated The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,561.67, up 2.5% on the week — its best since early August, snapping a four-week losing streak. The Nasdaq finished at 25,136.27 (+2.3%), the Dow at 52,347.55 (+2.1%), the Russell 2000 at 2,790.49 (+1.3%). Friday itself was soft — S&P −0.4%, Nasdaq −0.9% — but more than 60% of S&P stocks rose, so the selling was concentrated, not broad. The concentration is the story. The week belonged to Nvidia, and not in a good way. Jensen Huang resigned as CEO on Thursday after revelations of extramarital affairs, including one with a woman US intelligence suspects was recruited by Beijing, and a board investigation into whether he was targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. Shares plunged as much as 14% on Thursday before recovering; they closed Friday at $162.86, down another ~2%. Money rotated into rivals on Thursday — AMD soared — then gave it back on Friday, AMD falling 8.75% to $534.06 and Broadcom 4.76%, with the chip index (SOX) down 3.43% on the day. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO; the board has named no permanent successor and no timeline. The setup for next week is extraordinary: Nvidia reports fiscal Q3 earnings Tuesday after the close (consensus ~$2.49 a share on ~$109 billion revenue), its first report without Huang, and Huang has been asked to appear before House committees Wednesday. The most important earnings call in the company's history, in the words of one observer, and the leadership question now sits on top of the numbers question. Breadth and positioning: the rotation out of AI into the rest of the market is real — the Dow rose on a day the Nasdaq fell nearly 1% — but it is fragile. The S&P reclaimed the 7,600 area it lost after the midterms, closing at 7,561.67. The VIX sits at ~19.3, elevated but not panicked. The market's bet is that the AI trade survives its founder's exit and the Fed's hikes. Tuesday tests the first half of that bet. Crypto Below $70,000 and Bleeding Bitcoin broke. It fell through $70,000 overnight Thursday into Friday, sliced through its 200-day moving average near $73,100, and closed the week around $68,300 — down roughly 11% over five sessions and down ~24% year-to-date. Ethereum lost $2,000 and closed near $1,924, down 4.3% Friday and 14% over seven days. Solana fell below $80 to ~$78.45. The whole complex is at three-month lows. The mechanics were brutal: $1.64 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours, 88.7% of them longs. The flows are worse than the price: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now seen six straight days of outflows, ~$1.88 billion since the start of November, with BlackRock's IBIT alone losing more than $2 billion over nine sessions. Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are a combined ~$2.25 billion in net outflows for the year. Stablecoin supply contracted $14.2 billion over the 30 days through November 9, the largest decline since June 2022 — the liquidity is leaving the system, not just rotating. What crypto is signaling: this is the purest read on risk appetite and liquidity in the market right now, and it is flashing red while equities rallied. The divergence is the tell — stocks are being carried by rotation and earnings; crypto has no earnings to hide behind, only the rates-and-liquidity backdrop, and that backdrop (5.15% 10-year, 19-month-high dollar, a hiking Fed) is the worst of the year. Bitcoin's next level is the $67,000–$68,000 shelf; holding it matters more than any bounce. If it gives way, the "bear market lows" conversation starts in earnest — CoinDesk noted Bitcoin has never had two consecutive down years, and that record is now in play. The Feedback Loop Who's Leading, Who's Following The transmission chain, as it stands this morning: Leading — the numbers that move first ·        Crude & freight: Brent $95.84 / WTI $88.56, down 2.5% on the week despite war. Supply glut is leading; Hormuz risk is the tail. Outlook: range-bound $91–$98 until either the glut or an attack breaks it. ·        Treasury yields: 10-year 5.15%, +30bp on the week, biggest weekly rise in 19 months. Leading everything. Outlook: higher until something breaks or the Fed blinks. ·        Fed rate pricing: December hike ~98–99%, 50bp ~10%. The repricing (+25pp in two weeks) is leading the dollar, gold, and crypto. Outlook: minutes Wednesday and retail sales Tuesday are the next inputs; a dovish surprise is the only circuit-breaker. ·        PPI: +6.5% year-on-year, hottest in ~4 years. Leading CPI expectations and Fed hawkishness. Outlook: pipeline pressure still building. Following — the numbers getting moved ·        USD (DXY 103.41, 19-month high, +1.1% wk): following the rate differential. Strong while the Fed hikes; vulnerable if growth cracks. ·        Equities (S&P 7,561.67, +2.5% wk): following the rotation, not the macro. Rallying despite the rates backdrop because breadth improved — fragile if yields keep climbing. ·        Credit spreads: still contained — the dog that hasn't barked. The chain breaks here first if it breaks at all. ·        Gold ($3,879, −4.5% wk, worst since June): following real yields and the dollar, textbook. $3,800 below, $4,000 above. ·        Crypto (BTC ~$68,300, −11% in five sessions): following liquidity out the door — ETF outflows, stablecoin contraction, liquidations. The canary, and it's not singing. What confirms the chain: yields stay high, dollar stays strong, crypto stays weak, equities rotate rather than rally. What breaks it: a soft retail sales print or dovish FOMC minutes that pulls December hike odds back under ~85%, or a Hormuz closure that sends oil through $98 and forces the Fed to choose between inflation and growth. How it All Ties Together The Big Picture Follow the chain and it runs in a straight line this week: a war that won't end keeps a risk premium in oil, but a supply glut caps it; sticky producer inflation plus a hot labor market gives a hawkish Fed its mandate; the Fed's hiking repricing drives the 10-year to 5.15% and the dollar to a 19-month high; those two together crush gold and crypto, squeeze housing, and put the entire equity rally on the shoulders of one trade — AI — which just lost the man who built it. That is why Tuesday is the week. Retail sales in the morning tells us whether the consumer — the last engine of growth — is still spending into 5% rates. Nvidia earnings in the afternoon tells us whether the AI trade can stand on its numbers without its founder. And the FOMC minutes on Wednesday tell us whether anyone inside the Fed is nervous about what they're doing. The market's current answer to all of this is: yes, the economy can take it, and yes, the trade survives. It's a plausible answer. It's also an answer that has about three days to prove itself.     Can Nvidia's numbers — and the consumer's wallet — hold up the market's two load-bearing pillars while the Fed hikes into both of them? — The key question for the week   The Week Ahead (All Times PT / ET) Monday, Nov 16 ·        Empire State manufacturing survey — 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM ET ·        Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks — 9:00 AM PT / 12:00 PM ET ·        Earnings: Baidu Tuesday, Nov 17 — the Big Day ·        October retail sales — 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM ET (consensus ~+0.2%) ·        Industrial production, import prices, NAHB housing index — morning ·        Fed speakers: Waller, Hammack, Williams ·        Earnings: Home Depot, Disney (before open); NVIDIA after the close (~1:20 PM PT / 4:20 PM ET, call 2:00 PM PT / 5:00 PM ET) Wednesday, Nov 18 ·        Housing starts, pending home sales — 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM ET ·        FOMC minutes (October meeting) — 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET ·        UK CPI; Huang House committee appearance (status unclear) ·        Earnings: Lowe's, Target, TJX Thursday, Nov 19 ·        Weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed survey — 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM ET ·        Earnings: Walmart (before open) Friday, Nov 20 ·        University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) — 7:00 AM PT / 10:00 AM ET Beyond: PCE inflation and consumer spending Wed Nov 25; November jobs report Fri Dec 4; FOMC decision Wed Dec 9 (2:00 PM ET) with new dot plot; November CPI Thu Dec 10. Sources ·        Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, Oct 2026 (Nov 6); CPI Oct 2026 (Nov 10); PPI Oct 2026 (Nov 13) (bls.gov) ·        Associated Press / CNBC via market wraps — Nov 13 closes (mlq.ai) ·        Kalshi / Polymarket Fed odds tracker (Nov 14) (predictionmarketspicks.com) ·        Reuters via FinanceFeeds — Brent, WTI, OPEC+ output, IEA surplus call (financefeeds.com) ·        FXStreet / Kitco — 10-year yield, DXY, gold (fxstreet.com) ·        Reuters / Medium — four tankers hit in Hormuz, Trump "no deal" post (medium.com) ·        AP / Ballotpedia / PNC — 2026 midterm results and divided-government implications (pnc.com) ·        USA Today / Nvidia 8-K — Huang resignation, Kress interim CEO (usatoday.com) ·        CoinDesk / Farside via Market Briefer — BTC, ETF outflows, liquidations (marketbriefer.com) ·        Schaeffer's / Lance Roberts — week-ahead calendar, Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes (schaeffersresearch.com) Prepared Saturday, November 14, 2026, ~7:15 AM PT. All prices as of the Friday, November 13 close unless noted. Not investment advice.   Yields climb, dollar soars Tuesday's earnings hold the week Hawks wait, bulls grow thin

 

Stocks bounced off last week's lows. Then Nvidia slipped 7% overnight.

What today said

Last Thursday's low is starting to look like a trough. SPY rose 1.3% to 759.81 and QQQ 2.3% to 690.38, which leaves them 3.7% and 6.7% above their Nov 5 lows (732.71 and 647.05). Both daily upswings are in day 3. Small caps joined: IWM gained 0.9% to 283.09. The VIX fell 10% to 17.49, down from 25.64 on Friday, and its daily RR is oversold at 13.

The bounce is real on the daily charts and still unproven on the weekly ones. SPY's and IWM's weekly swings turned up this week, but it's week one, and 23% of those reverse after a week, so Friday's close decides whether they stick. QQQ's weekly swing is still down, now in week 5 against a 3.6-week average. Its daily CIT Oscillator crossed back up out of oversold two days ago, which puts it in its daily buy zone.

The bond market was closed for Veterans Day, so the 10-year's 4.998% (up 1.5 basis points) and TLT's flat close are thin readings. The dollar index is at a 1-year high near 102.97 with its daily RR overbought at 85. Oil is in day 9 of a daily downswing, near 86, with its CIT Oscillator oversold at 24. Bitcoin is near 73,600 tonight, in day 7 of a daily downswing.

After the close, Nvidia fell: it traded at 160.84 at 1:15 am, 7.4% under its 173.73 close. It's one of the largest weights in both QQQ and SPY, so tomorrow's open starts from a weaker spot than today's close.

CIT Balance of Power: 33, fear (38 a week ago, 47 a month ago). Momentum (13), put/call (11), junk bonds (17) and safe-haven demand (9) are all on the fear side. Equal-weight strength is the one component at greed, at 98: over 20 days the equal-weight S&P 500 has beaten the cap-weighted index by 6.3%. Since 2008, fear readings were followed by an average S&P 500 month of +0.9%, the same as all days, and by a 10%+ drop within three months 19% of the time, against 16% for all days. It's a risk gauge, not a timing signal. The CBOE put/call ratio was 0.92 on Wednesday, inside its usual range: neutral.

Stocktwits crowd: SPY 50% bullish (45% a week ago, 47% a month ago), messages +26% vs their 30-day average; QQQ 51% bullish (48% a week ago, 49% a month ago), messages +32% vs their 30-day average. Trending there tonight: $NVDA, $MSTR, $TTWO, $AMD, $BABA. It's a mood reading, not a tested signal.

In QQQ options, the day's new positions were $102.5 million in puts against $2.7 million in calls, almost all of it in Nov 20 puts with strikes 8% to 12% above the price. Puts that deep in the money often hedge stock that's already held rather than bet on a drop, and unusual activity isn't a back-tested signal.

Two paths from here, neither of them a forecast:

• If QQQ holds its 679.57 pivot through Nvidia's drop, the daily upswing (day 3 of a usual 5.2) keeps going, with the 696.00 channel top above it. SPY's matching line is its 752.59 pivot, with the 770 gamma wall above.
• If QQQ closes back under 679.57, the daily trend turns down again while the weekly is still falling, and the 669.88 channel bottom is next. For SPY, the 750 put strike with the most open interest and the 748.35 channel bottom sit just under its pivot.

The rotation changes so far this week

Three days into the week, so none of this is settled until Friday's close. The sector read is still RISK-OFF: offense lags defense. Since 1999, about 1 in 6 such weeks were followed by a 10%+ SPY drop within 13 weeks, against 1 in 8 for all weeks. The asset and factor reads are RISK-OFF too. What moved this week:

• Assets: US large caps (SPY) slipped from Leading to Weakening, and high-yield and corporate bonds from Leading to Improving. Developed markets outside the US (EFA) moved up to Leading.
• World: the US slipped from Leading to Weakening, while the UK, Germany, Hong Kong, China and India lead.
• Sectors: communications (XLC) moved up from Lagging to Improving. Tech (XLK) is still Lagging.
• Commodities: oil slipped from Leading to Weakening and gasoline to Lagging, while natural gas, agriculture and silver moved up to Improving.
• Indices: micro caps (IWC) moved up from Lagging to Improving. The Nasdaq 100 is still Lagging and equal weight Leading.
• Factors and growth / value didn't change: quality, low volatility, value and high dividend lead, and large-cap growth lags.

Price targets to Friday's close

This is the typical range for two more trading days, based on how far each market moved over two days in past years of its current long-term phase. About two times in three, the close lands inside 1σ, and about nineteen times in twenty inside 2σ.

Market	Close	1σ to Nov 13	2σ to Nov 13
SPY	759.81	750.77–768.96	741.84–778.22
QQQ	690.38	678.73–702.23	667.28–714.28
IWM	283.09	278.54–287.72	274.05–292.42
TLT	80.92	79.87–81.98	78.84–83.05
10-year yield	4.998%	4.858%–5.142%	4.721%–5.291%
Dollar index*	102.97	102.34–103.61	101.71–104.26
Oil*	86.01	83.18–88.94	80.44–91.97
VIX	17.49	16.03–19.09	14.69–20.83
Bitcoin*	~73,600	69,200–78,280	65,050–83,260

*Oil, the dollar and bitcoin from 1 am New York time; bitcoin to Friday night.

Levels inside the ranges

• SPY: outer channel bottom 742.97 · expected-move low to Nov 20 743.23 · inner channel bottom 748.35 · largest put open interest 750 · pivot 752.59 · max pain and put wall 760 · inner channel top 762.14 · outer channel top 766.95 · gamma wall and largest call open interest 770 · expected-move high 776.39
• QQQ: inner channel bottom 669.88 · downswing target 675.38 · pivot 679.57 · inner channel top 696.00 · outer channel top 703.13
• IWM: outer channel bottom 275.71 · downswing target 277.22 · inner channel bottom 278.40 · pivot 281.25 · upswing target 282.74 · inner channel top 285.56 · Nov 4 high 286.17 · outer channel top 287.58
• TLT: outer channel bottom 79.56 · downswing target 80.14 · inner channel bottom 80.30 · upswing target 80.72 · pivot 81.22 · inner channel top 81.83 · outer channel top 82.44
• 10-year yield: outer channel bottom 4.876% · inner channel bottom 4.902% · downswing target 4.921% · pivot 4.942% · upswing target 4.972% · inner channel top 5.038% · outer channel top 5.107%
• Dollar index: outer channel bottom 102.08 · pivot 102.20 · inner channel bottom 102.33 · upswing target 102.49 · inner channel top 103.36 · outer channel top 103.73
• Oil: inner channel bottom 81.51 · pivot 86.80 · upswing target 90.18 · inner channel top 91.32
• VIX: outer channel bottom 16.84 · inner channel bottom 17.38 · upswing target 19.21 · pivot 19.86 · inner channel top 20.57
• Bitcoin: average-downswing level 69,920 · outer channel bottom 70,156 · inner channel bottom 72,001 · pivot 74,136 · inner channel top 75,853 · upswing target 76,576 · outer channel top 77,360

The range shows how big a move is typical, not which way it goes. Options levels for QQQ, IWM and TLT weren't available tonight; SPY's are from the close.

Time targets

Thursday, Nov 12

Watch dates for QQQ and the VIX. Bitcoin's daily downswing reaches 2σ of its usual length (8.0 days).

Friday, Nov 13

QQQ: Nov 13 ★ (Gann + Fibonacci). The VIX: Nov 13 ★ (Gann + Fibonacci), the day its daily downswing reaches its usual length (4.7 days). Oil: Nov 13 ★ on both counts (Gann twice daily, Gann + Lucas weekly), the day its daily downswing reaches 2σ (9.2 days). IWM: Nov 13 ★ on the weekly count (Gann + Fibonacci), with its daily upswing at its usual length (4.5 days). Watch dates for SPY, TLT and the 10-year on both counts.

The weekly rotation reads settle at the close, and so do the new weekly upswings in SPY, IWM and the 10-year.

Over the weekend

IWM: Nov 14 ★ (Gann + Lucas). Bitcoin: Nov 14 and Nov 15 on the daily count, Nov 15 on the weekly. Watch dates for SPY, TLT, the 10-year and the dollar on Nov 14.

Monday, Nov 16

QQQ: Nov 16 ★ (Gann twice + Lucas). The VIX: Nov 16 ★ (Gann + Lucas). SPY's and QQQ's daily upswings reach their usual length (5.2 days), and so do the 10-year's upswing, TLT's downswing and the dollar's upswing.

What to watch

1. QQQ vs 679.57: Nvidia's overnight drop puts the new daily upswing to its first test. Above the pivot, the daily trend stays up; a close under it turns it down, with 669.88 next. The weekly downswing is in week 5, and 1σ of its usual length comes around Nov 18.
2. SPY vs 752.59 and 770: the pivot below and the gamma wall above, with max pain and the put wall right at the 760 close. The new weekly upswing needs Friday's close to stick.
3. The VIX vs 17.38: down 10% today with the daily RR oversold at 13, it closed just above its channel bottom. A close back above 19.86 would turn its daily trend up.
4. The dollar at its 1-year high: the daily RR is overbought at 85 and the daily upswing is in day 3 of 4.8. Holding above 102.20 keeps the daily trend up.
5. Oil into Nov 13 ★: day 9 of a downswing that usually lasts 4.1, with the CIT Oscillator at 24. A buy zone starts when it turns back up through 25; a close above 86.80 would turn the daily trend up.

These readings come from the OddsTrader AI Analyzer. Get OddsTrader on the App Store, 10 days free, no cc necessary.

For information only. This is not investment advice. The price ranges describe typical moves, not forecasts. Swing dates and watch dates are dates to keep an eye on, not predicted turns. The rotation read and the Balance of Power describe past drop risk, not future returns. Crowd sentiment and unusual options activity aren't tested signals. Do your own research and manage your risk.