Technical Corner: Gann, Elliott & Hurst
Gann: The Line in the Sand Gives Way
• S&P closed above 7,723 — the
weekend's line in the sand. Next: Sept 22 high 7,782, then the 7,816.70
record.
• The Oct 2023 low (~4,117) hits its 3-year
anniversary later this month — a major Gann window; volatility clusters
there.
Elliott Wave: A New Impulse Takes Shape
• The wave-2-complete read is gaining
confirmation: a close above 7,723 with Nasdaq at records argues the correction
is over and a new impulse is underway.
• The bearish alternate (wave C toward 7,350)
dies on sustained trade above 7,782. Above 7,816.70 confirms the impulse toward
8,700+.
• Caution flag unchanged: breadth weakest since
2000 (~27% above 50-day) - narrow, mega-cap-led.
Hurst Cycles: Strength Inside the Peak Window
• We're inside the Oct 5–7 twenty-day
peak window — and price is pushing higher through it. Strong right-translation
(bullish), but the cycle is extended; next 20-day trough window lands ~Oct 14,
exactly on CPI.
• The ~40-day trough window mid-month is the
first real test.
The Bottom Line: The break above 7,723 turns the weekend’s
make-or-break setup bullish, making a record retest the base case. The lone
holdout is breadth, which remains historically thin and heavily dependent on
mega-cap leadership.
On Deck for Tuesday
• Trade balance (Aug) — 5:30 AM PT. Secondary;
watch tariff effects.
• JOLTS (Aug) — 7:00 AM PT. The labor
read that matters: openings vs payrolls weakness.
• $58B 3-year auction — 10:00 AM PT.
First of three auctions this week.
• Fed speakers: Williams 6:05 AM PT,
Bowman 7:45 AM PT, Logan 4:00 PM PT — first voices after the prices-paid scare.
• Seasonality: Tuesday, still inside the
turn-of-month window — historically a positive stretch.
What to Watch: JOLTS will test the labor-market
narrative, Treasury supply will challenge the bond market, and the first wave
of Fed commentary after the prices-paid surprise could set the tone for the
next move.
