How Tuesday's watch list closed
- SPY vs 767.28: held. SPY never traded below 768.40 and closed at 773.09, up 0.5%. The daily upswing is in day 2, and the weekly swing has turned up: it's in week one, and 23% of those reverse after a week, so Friday's close decides whether it sticks.
- QQQ vs 717.03: the downswing ended. QQQ rose 1.1% to 725.20 and closed above the pivot, ending a 9-day daily downswing. The CIT Oscillator crossed back up out of oversold yesterday, which puts QQQ in its daily buy zone. It's day one of the upswing, and 18% of those reverse the next day.
- The 10-year vs 5.111% and 5.136%: above both. The yield dipped to 5.081% during the day, under its pivot, then closed at 5.146%, just above Tuesday's 5.136% high. That's the path Tuesday's edition said would take away stocks' support. Today, stocks rose anyway.
- The VIX vs 18.50: it stayed well below. The VIX fell 3.6% to 16.68, after a high of 17.58. Its low of 16.51 went slightly past the 16.55 downswing target. The daily RR is oversold at 22.
- Bitcoin on Oct 21 ★: it ran up to 84,835, just short of the 84,949 upswing target, and is near 84,610 tonight. Its daily upswing reached its usual length today, with the pivot now at 82,881.
What today said
For two days the story was the 10-year: as long as the yield stayed under its line, stocks had room. Today the yield closed back above the line, and stocks didn't react. QQQ rose 1.1% and ended its long downswing, SPY's weekly swing turned up, and the VIX dropped toward its downswing target. Oil fell about 4% to 97.77, though the futures roll is still making the daily oil series noisy.
Tuesday's edition was wrong on one point. It said that if the yield got back above 5.136%, stocks would lose their support. The yield did, and stocks rose. One day isn't enough to say yields have stopped mattering. But for now, yields and stocks are both rising.
CIT Balance of Power: 38, fear (38 a week ago, 49 a month ago). Junk bonds are still the weakest part at 8, and equal-weight strength is still the only component on the greed side, at 80. Since 2008, fear readings were followed by an average S&P 500 month of +0.9%, the same as all days. A 10%+ drop within three months followed 19% of the time, against 16% for all days. It's a risk gauge, not a timing signal. The CBOE put/call ratio was 0.87 on Tuesday, inside its usual range: neutral.
Two paths from here, neither of them a forecast:
- If the 10-year keeps rising toward its 5.174% upswing target, which the swing count puts around Oct 26, the test is whether stocks keep ignoring it. Junk bonds at 8 are the part of the Balance of Power most likely to show strain first.
- If the yield closes back under its 5.120% pivot, bonds give stocks room again. QQQ's new upswing would then have the 735 gamma wall and the 737.29 upswing target above it.
The rotation changes so far this week
Three days into the week, so none of this is settled until Friday's close. The sector read is still RISK-OFF: energy, health care and staples lead. Since 1999, about 1 in 6 such weeks were followed by a 10%+ SPY drop within 13 weeks, against 1 in 8 for all weeks. What moved today:
- Sectors: tech (XLK) moved back up from Lagging to Weakening.
- World: the UK (EWU) slipped back from Leading to Improving, so the US is again the only leader. Hong Kong is back in Lagging.
- Growth / Value: large-cap growth (VUG) is back to Leading after one day at Weakening. Mid-cap growth (IJK) is still Improving.
Asset classes (RISK-ON, FADING), factors (RISK-OFF), commodities and indices didn't change.
Price targets to Friday's close
This is the typical range for two more trading days, based on how far each market moved in past weeks of its current long-term phase. About two times in three, the close lands inside 1σ, and about nineteen times in twenty inside 2σ.
| Market | Close | 1σ to Oct 23 | 2σ to Oct 23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 773.09 | 764.90–781.37 | 756.79–789.74 |
| QQQ | 725.20 | 713.97–736.61 | 702.91–748.20 |
| TLT | 80.24 | 79.30–81.19 | 78.37–82.15 |
| 10-year yield | 5.146% | 5.058%–5.235% | 4.972%–5.326% |
| Dollar index | 101.69 | 101.17–102.23 | 100.64–102.77 |
| Oil | 97.77 | 93.06–102.67 | 88.60–107.85 |
| VIX | 16.68 | 15.38–18.09 | 14.18–19.62 |
| Bitcoin* | ~84,610 | 81,200–88,160 | 77,930–91,860 |
*Bitcoin to Friday night.
Levels inside the ranges
- SPY: largest put open interest 765 · downswing target 765.56 · put wall 769 · pivot 769.36 · max pain 771 · upswing target 776.74 · channel top 777.79 · gamma wall 780
- QQQ: put wall 715 · pivot 720.35 · largest call and put open interest 720 · downswing target 721.27 · max pain 725 · gamma wall 735 · upswing target 737.29
- TLT: channel bottom 79.34 · downswing target 79.68 · gamma flip 79.84 · pivot 79.96 · gamma wall 80 · upswing target 80.68 · channel top 80.81
- 10-year yield: channel bottom 5.071% · downswing target 5.092% · pivot 5.120% · upswing target 5.174% · channel top 5.200%
- Dollar index: outer channel bottom 100.94 · channel bottom 101.13 · pivot 101.80 · channel top 102.31 · outer channel top 102.57
- Oil: downswing target 94.35 · channel bottom 95.57 · upswing target 99.31 · pivot 101.65
- VIX: channel bottom 16.10 · downswing target 16.59 · put wall 17 · pivot 17.69 · upswing target 18.23 · max pain 18.50 · channel top 19.07
- Bitcoin: Oct 14 low 79,736 · channel bottom 81,652 · downswing target 82,172 · pivot 82,881 · upswing target 85,167 · channel top 85,544 · outer channel top 87,107
The range shows how big a move is typical, not which way it goes. SPY's put wall moved up from 760 to 769, right at its pivot, so 769 is now the level both readings point to.
Time targets
Thursday, Oct 22
- Watch dates for the 10-year, TLT, the VIX and the dollar.
Friday, Oct 23
- TLT's daily upswing reaches its usual length (4.0 days), with its upswing target at 80.68.
- The dollar: Oct 23 ★ on the weekly count (Gann twice), the day its daily downswing reaches 1σ (6.3 days). Watch dates for SPY, QQQ and oil.
- The weekly rotation read settles at the close, and so does SPY's new weekly upswing.
Over the weekend
- Bitcoin: Oct 24 ★ (Gann + Fibonacci). The 10-year: Oct 25 ★ (Gann + Lucas). The dollar: Oct 25 ★ (Gann + Lucas).
Monday, Oct 26
- TLT: Oct 26 ★ (Gann twice + Lucas). The 10-year's daily upswing and the VIX's daily downswing both reach their usual lengths.
What to watch
- QQQ vs 720.35: the new upswing is one day old, and 18% of those reverse the next day. Holding above the pivot keeps it going, with the 735 gamma wall and the 737.29 target above. The 715 put wall is the first support below.
- SPY vs 769: the pivot (769.36) and the new put wall (769) are at the same level. Above it, 776.74 and the 780 gamma wall are next. The new weekly upswing needs Friday's close to stick.
- The 10-year vs 5.120% and 5.174%: it closed above yesterday's line. A move toward 5.174% tests whether stocks keep ignoring yields; a close under 5.120% gives them room again. Thursday is a watch date.
- The VIX vs 16.59 and 17.69: it's 0.5% from its downswing target with the daily RR oversold at 22. A close back above 17.69 would turn the daily trend up.
- The dollar vs 101.80 into Oct 23 ★: its daily downswing is in day 5, past its usual 4.2 days, and it sits just under its pivot. A close above 101.80 would turn the daily trend up.
Tomorrow's edition opens with how each of these played out.
These readings come from the OddsTrader AI Analyzer. Get OddsTrader on the App Store, with a 1-week free trial of OddsTrader Pro.
For information only. This is not investment advice. The price ranges describe typical moves, not forecasts. Swing dates and watch dates are dates to keep an eye on, not predicted turns. The rotation read and the Balance of Power describe past drop risk, not future returns. Do your own research and manage your risk.
