What today said
Last Thursday's low is starting to look like a trough. SPY rose 1.3% to 759.81 and QQQ 2.3% to 690.38, which leaves them 3.7% and 6.7% above their Nov 5 lows (732.71 and 647.05). Both daily upswings are in day 3. Small caps joined: IWM gained 0.9% to 283.09. The VIX fell 10% to 17.49, down from 25.64 on Friday, and its daily RR is oversold at 13.
The bounce is real on the daily charts and still unproven on the weekly ones. SPY's and IWM's weekly swings turned up this week, but it's week one, and 23% of those reverse after a week, so Friday's close decides whether they stick. QQQ's weekly swing is still down, now in week 5 against a 3.6-week average. Its daily CIT Oscillator crossed back up out of oversold two days ago, which puts it in its daily buy zone.
The bond market was closed for Veterans Day, so the 10-year's 4.998% (up 1.5 basis points) and TLT's flat close are thin readings. The dollar index is at a 1-year high near 102.97 with its daily RR overbought at 85. Oil is in day 9 of a daily downswing, near 86, with its CIT Oscillator oversold at 24. Bitcoin is near 73,600 tonight, in day 7 of a daily downswing.
After the close, Nvidia fell: it traded at 160.84 at 1:15 am, 7.4% under its 173.73 close. It's one of the largest weights in both QQQ and SPY, so tomorrow's open starts from a weaker spot than today's close.
CIT Balance of Power: 33, fear (38 a week ago, 47 a month ago). Momentum (13), put/call (11), junk bonds (17) and safe-haven demand (9) are all on the fear side. Equal-weight strength is the one component at greed, at 98: over 20 days the equal-weight S&P 500 has beaten the cap-weighted index by 6.3%. Since 2008, fear readings were followed by an average S&P 500 month of +0.9%, the same as all days, and by a 10%+ drop within three months 19% of the time, against 16% for all days. It's a risk gauge, not a timing signal. The CBOE put/call ratio was 0.92 on Wednesday, inside its usual range: neutral.
Stocktwits crowd: SPY 50% bullish (45% a week ago, 47% a month ago), messages +26% vs their 30-day average; QQQ 51% bullish (48% a week ago, 49% a month ago), messages +32% vs their 30-day average. Trending there tonight: $NVDA, $MSTR, $TTWO, $AMD, $BABA. It's a mood reading, not a tested signal.
In QQQ options, the day's new positions were $102.5 million in puts against $2.7 million in calls, almost all of it in Nov 20 puts with strikes 8% to 12% above the price. Puts that deep in the money often hedge stock that's already held rather than bet on a drop, and unusual activity isn't a back-tested signal.
Two paths from here, neither of them a forecast:
- If QQQ holds its 679.57 pivot through Nvidia's drop, the daily upswing (day 3 of a usual 5.2) keeps going, with the 696.00 channel top above it. SPY's matching line is its 752.59 pivot, with the 770 gamma wall above.
- If QQQ closes back under 679.57, the daily trend turns down again while the weekly is still falling, and the 669.88 channel bottom is next. For SPY, the 750 put strike with the most open interest and the 748.35 channel bottom sit just under its pivot.
The rotation changes so far this week
Three days into the week, so none of this is settled until Friday's close. The sector read is still RISK-OFF: offense lags defense. Since 1999, about 1 in 6 such weeks were followed by a 10%+ SPY drop within 13 weeks, against 1 in 8 for all weeks. The asset and factor reads are RISK-OFF too. What moved this week:
- Assets: US large caps (SPY) slipped from Leading to Weakening, and high-yield and corporate bonds from Leading to Improving. Developed markets outside the US (EFA) moved up to Leading.
- World: the US slipped from Leading to Weakening, while the UK, Germany, Hong Kong, China and India lead.
- Sectors: communications (XLC) moved up from Lagging to Improving. Tech (XLK) is still Lagging.
- Commodities: oil slipped from Leading to Weakening and gasoline to Lagging, while natural gas, agriculture and silver moved up to Improving.
- Indices: micro caps (IWC) moved up from Lagging to Improving. The Nasdaq 100 is still Lagging and equal weight Leading.
- Factors and growth / value didn't change: quality, low volatility, value and high dividend lead, and large-cap growth lags.
Price targets to Friday's close
This is the typical range for two more trading days, based on how far each market moved over two days in past years of its current long-term phase. About two times in three, the close lands inside 1σ, and about nineteen times in twenty inside 2σ.
| Market | Close | 1σ to Nov 13 | 2σ to Nov 13 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 759.81 | 750.77–768.96 | 741.84–778.22 |
| QQQ | 690.38 | 678.73–702.23 | 667.28–714.28 |
| IWM | 283.09 | 278.54–287.72 | 274.05–292.42 |
| TLT | 80.92 | 79.87–81.98 | 78.84–83.05 |
| 10-year yield | 4.998% | 4.858%–5.142% | 4.721%–5.291% |
| Dollar index* | 102.97 | 102.34–103.61 | 101.71–104.26 |
| Oil* | 86.01 | 83.18–88.94 | 80.44–91.97 |
| VIX | 17.49 | 16.03–19.09 | 14.69–20.83 |
| Bitcoin* | ~73,600 | 69,200–78,280 | 65,050–83,260 |
*Oil, the dollar and bitcoin from 1 am New York time; bitcoin to Friday night.
Levels inside the ranges
- SPY: outer channel bottom 742.97 · expected-move low to Nov 20 743.23 · inner channel bottom 748.35 · largest put open interest 750 · pivot 752.59 · max pain and put wall 760 · inner channel top 762.14 · outer channel top 766.95 · gamma wall and largest call open interest 770 · expected-move high 776.39
- QQQ: inner channel bottom 669.88 · downswing target 675.38 · pivot 679.57 · inner channel top 696.00 · outer channel top 703.13
- IWM: outer channel bottom 275.71 · downswing target 277.22 · inner channel bottom 278.40 · pivot 281.25 · upswing target 282.74 · inner channel top 285.56 · Nov 4 high 286.17 · outer channel top 287.58
- TLT: outer channel bottom 79.56 · downswing target 80.14 · inner channel bottom 80.30 · upswing target 80.72 · pivot 81.22 · inner channel top 81.83 · outer channel top 82.44
- 10-year yield: outer channel bottom 4.876% · inner channel bottom 4.902% · downswing target 4.921% · pivot 4.942% · upswing target 4.972% · inner channel top 5.038% · outer channel top 5.107%
- Dollar index: outer channel bottom 102.08 · pivot 102.20 · inner channel bottom 102.33 · upswing target 102.49 · inner channel top 103.36 · outer channel top 103.73
- Oil: inner channel bottom 81.51 · pivot 86.80 · upswing target 90.18 · inner channel top 91.32
- VIX: outer channel bottom 16.84 · inner channel bottom 17.38 · upswing target 19.21 · pivot 19.86 · inner channel top 20.57
- Bitcoin: average-downswing level 69,920 · outer channel bottom 70,156 · inner channel bottom 72,001 · pivot 74,136 · inner channel top 75,853 · upswing target 76,576 · outer channel top 77,360
The range shows how big a move is typical, not which way it goes. Options levels for QQQ, IWM and TLT weren't available tonight; SPY's are from the close.
Time targets
Thursday, Nov 12
Watch dates for QQQ and the VIX. Bitcoin's daily downswing reaches 2σ of its usual length (8.0 days).
Friday, Nov 13
QQQ: Nov 13 ★ (Gann + Fibonacci). The VIX: Nov 13 ★ (Gann + Fibonacci), the day its daily downswing reaches its usual length (4.7 days). Oil: Nov 13 ★ on both counts (Gann twice daily, Gann + Lucas weekly), the day its daily downswing reaches 2σ (9.2 days). IWM: Nov 13 ★ on the weekly count (Gann + Fibonacci), with its daily upswing at its usual length (4.5 days). Watch dates for SPY, TLT and the 10-year on both counts.
The weekly rotation reads settle at the close, and so do the new weekly upswings in SPY, IWM and the 10-year.
Over the weekend
IWM: Nov 14 ★ (Gann + Lucas). Bitcoin: Nov 14 and Nov 15 on the daily count, Nov 15 on the weekly. Watch dates for SPY, TLT, the 10-year and the dollar on Nov 14.
Monday, Nov 16
QQQ: Nov 16 ★ (Gann twice + Lucas). The VIX: Nov 16 ★ (Gann + Lucas). SPY's and QQQ's daily upswings reach their usual length (5.2 days), and so do the 10-year's upswing, TLT's downswing and the dollar's upswing.
What to watch
- QQQ vs 679.57: Nvidia's overnight drop puts the new daily upswing to its first test. Above the pivot, the daily trend stays up; a close under it turns it down, with 669.88 next. The weekly downswing is in week 5, and 1σ of its usual length comes around Nov 18.
- SPY vs 752.59 and 770: the pivot below and the gamma wall above, with max pain and the put wall right at the 760 close. The new weekly upswing needs Friday's close to stick.
- The VIX vs 17.38: down 10% today with the daily RR oversold at 13, it closed just above its channel bottom. A close back above 19.86 would turn its daily trend up.
- The dollar at its 1-year high: the daily RR is overbought at 85 and the daily upswing is in day 3 of 4.8. Holding above 102.20 keeps the daily trend up.
- Oil into Nov 13 ★: day 9 of a downswing that usually lasts 4.1, with the CIT Oscillator at 24. A buy zone starts when it turns back up through 25; a close above 86.80 would turn the daily trend up.
These readings come from the OddsTrader AI Analyzer. Get OddsTrader on the App Store, 10 days free, no cc necessary.
For information only. This is not investment advice. The price ranges describe typical moves, not forecasts. Swing dates and watch dates are dates to keep an eye on, not predicted turns. The rotation read and the Balance of Power describe past drop risk, not future returns. Crowd sentiment and unusual options activity aren't tested signals. Do your own research and manage your risk.
