Market Breadth Data******************************

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

$SPY Patter and Trend

Gap #5:

Saturday, April 22, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

On a weekly basis, the SPY registered a 2 point advance. The daily chart, however, shows that the index got rejected 7 times at the 50 dma:

while market internals were getting overbought:

Expect support at 2340 and 2320 to be tested once market breadth starts deteriorating again.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

The balance of power has shifted and, since April 12th, the bears have the upper hand in the battle for the 50 dma:

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Judging by the anemic volume behind this reversal, it wasn't supported by much conviction from market participants:

On the bright side, however, support at 2320 held, and the index even made it above 2340. The evidence suggests a continuing consolidation between 2320 and 2400.
First resistance at 2370.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

$SPY Trend and Market Breadth

Market breadth for the major averages continues to deteriorate:

After losing the battle at the 50 dma, SPX futures dropped below support at 2340 on Friday. The next two support levels  are at 2320 and 2280.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Support at 2340 held and the index was able to climb back above the 50 dma at the close. However, the %Bulls ratio dropped below 50%:

$SPY Pattern and Trend

While key support remains at 2340, the SPX is currently losing the battle at the 50 dma:

Sunday, April 09, 2017

$SPY and Volatility

VIX is signaling a 60% chance of lower prices within the next couple of days:

but oversold market internals continue to argue otherwise.

Friday, April 07, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Those, who don't pay attention to market internals, do so at their own peril:

2340 held again and, barring some disastrous results from the jobs report (not likely), shorts, most likely, will be forced to cover:

Key support/resistance levels: 2340 and 2400.

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

$QQQ Trend and Momentum

One of the longest streaks in recent history is coming to an end:

Monday, April 03, 2017

$SPY Trump Rally

The major indices are reacting differently to the Trump rally. While the Russell 2000 has flat-lined since the end of 2016:

the Qs continue advancing after a slower start:

and the SPX and DJIA are making lower lows and highs since the beginning of March:

Such divergences, while not uncommon, can't last forever.

$SPY Pattern and Trend

The SPX and NDX are starting the week on a different note. Weekly NDX is on a buy signal, although an overbought alert is in place:

while the SPX weekly sell signal will be tested from the get-go:

Friday, March 31, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Now that the month and quarter are over, the conviction behind the Trump rally can be tested in earnest on Monday:

As can be seen from the chart above, the majority of counter-trend swings, during the last year, have lasted 3 - 4 weeks.

Despite this being heralded as one of the strongest quarters in years, the monthly bull/bear ratio remained unchanged for the quarter:

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Conventional wisdom was proven correct, and the indices are advancing into month/quarter end. Although the NDX made new highs during this rally, the SPX and DJIA pattern shows lower lows and highs still in place:

The resilience of this advance will be tested very soon, as market internals have become overbought:

As can be seen from the chart above, overbought market internals often precede a sideways/down market phase, while oversold market internals usually lead to a sideways/up move.

Monday, March 27, 2017

$SPX Pattern and Trend

The futures broke below support at 2335 and it now becomes resistance:

Conventional wisdom would expect end-of-month and quarter window dressing to slow the decline in a few days.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

$SPY Bulls and Bears

The SPX Bull/Bear ratio dropped to 50%, reflecting uncertainty about the execution and timing of Trump's economic agenda:

The index is trading in a narrow range with key support at 2335, and resistance at 2355.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Daily market breadth reached oversold levels:

and the futures are trying to stage a reversal:

Key resistance at 2355.

There is a pattern of lower lows and lower highs currently in place.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

$SPY Breadth and Momentum

Two warnings were issued last week: that market breadth is overbought, and that weekly swing time is ready for reversal. Today's break below support at 2350/2355 confirms the analysis:

The red bar at the bottom shows that momentum turned bearish as well.

$FANG and $SQID Divergence

While the FANGs are advancing in a 5th wave, the SQIDs have stalled in wave three:

Continued weakness in SQIDs will put the FANG's advance in jeopardy.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

$SPY Angles and Cycles

Assuming that a daily top is in, the next cycle turn is on April 12th, and the 1 x 1 angle can give us a price target estimate:

For this target to be reached, two things need to happen: momentum will have to remain neutral or turn bearish, and price must remain at or below the 1 x 1 angle.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

$SPY Momentum and Trend

While daily momentum and market breadth indicators are showing signs of weakening, weekly trend and momentum have yet to show any signs of reversal:

Weekly Swing Time, however, alerts that all major averages are due for a trend reversal.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

$SPY Pattern, Trend and Market Breadth

The SPX is closing in on the March 1st high just as market breadth is getting overbought:

(Source: Market Breadth)

This suggests that, in the near term, the market may have trouble sustaining a continued move higher.

$SPY Trend and Momentum

The SPX remains momentum-less, stuck in a narrow trading range ahead of the FOMC meeting:

E-mini resistance at 2395/2400, support at 2350.

Monday, March 13, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

As mentioned at the end of last week, momentum is stuck in neutral ahead of the FOMC meeting, and the market finds itself in a narrow trading range:

E-mini resistance at 2395/2400, support at 2350.
The numbers are similar for the SPX:

Thursday, March 09, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Support at 2350 held, and the index is bouncing off oversold market breadth readings:

In addition, the e-mini broke above the 1 x 1 down-sloping angle.

Upside target 2395, support at 2350.
Momentum is neutral, meaning that the risk of whipsaw is high.

Wednesday, March 08, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Low VIX and continued complacency in the face of deteriorating market breadth usually leads to a ooooops moment:

Key SPX support at 2350.

Monday, March 06, 2017

$SPY Gap and Trend

As expected, the gap got filled and daily momentum remains neutral. Judging by VIX, the majority is expecting the sideways/up phase to continue:

Market breadth, however, is still declining, and price is below the daily 1 x 1 down-sloping angle from the March 1st high:

Sunday, March 05, 2017

$SPY Momentum and Trend

While daily momentum turned neutral, weekly momentum remained strong and will turn neutral only on a drop below 2360:

The picture for the NDX is very similar, weekly momentum will turn neutral on a drop below 5300:

Time-wise, both instruments are overextended and due for a pull-back.

The average retracement is 4% for both the SPX and NDX.

Thursday, March 02, 2017

$SPY Gap and Trend

On all three prior occasions the gap has either been filled, or at least the high preceding the gap has been tested:

This makes 2371.5 first support level.

$SPY Momentum and Trend

What a difference a speech makes, allowing the major indices to regain positive momentum !

(SPX Chart)

(NDX Chart)

In fact, the last day of negative momentum was in 2016, January 30th.

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

$SPY Trend and Breadth

On February 22nd. we observed that the SPX is entering a consolidation phase. Market breadth declined ahead of President Trump's speech to Congress and has now reached oversold levels:

(Source: Market Breadth)

This opens the door for a new up phase to begin.

Trading Books