Market Breadth Data******************************

Friday, March 31, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Now that the month and quarter are over, the conviction behind the Trump rally can be tested in earnest on Monday:

As can be seen from the chart above, the majority of counter-trend swings, during the last year, have lasted 3 - 4 weeks.

Despite this being heralded as one of the strongest quarters in years, the monthly bull/bear ratio remained unchanged for the quarter:

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Conventional wisdom was proven correct, and the indices are advancing into month/quarter end. Although the NDX made new highs during this rally, the SPX and DJIA pattern shows lower lows and highs still in place:

The resilience of this advance will be tested very soon, as market internals have become overbought:

As can be seen from the chart above, overbought market internals often precede a sideways/down market phase, while oversold market internals usually lead to a sideways/up move.

Monday, March 27, 2017

$SPX Pattern and Trend

The futures broke below support at 2335 and it now becomes resistance:

Conventional wisdom would expect end-of-month and quarter window dressing to slow the decline in a few days.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

$SPY Bulls and Bears

The SPX Bull/Bear ratio dropped to 50%, reflecting uncertainty about the execution and timing of Trump's economic agenda:

The index is trading in a narrow range with key support at 2335, and resistance at 2355.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Daily market breadth reached oversold levels:

and the futures are trying to stage a reversal:

Key resistance at 2355.

There is a pattern of lower lows and lower highs currently in place.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

$SPY Breadth and Momentum

Two warnings were issued last week: that market breadth is overbought, and that weekly swing time is ready for reversal. Today's break below support at 2350/2355 confirms the analysis:

The red bar at the bottom shows that momentum turned bearish as well.

$FANG and $SQID Divergence

While the FANGs are advancing in a 5th wave, the SQIDs have stalled in wave three:

Continued weakness in SQIDs will put the FANG's advance in jeopardy.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

$SPY Angles and Cycles

Assuming that a daily top is in, the next cycle turn is on April 12th, and the 1 x 1 angle can give us a price target estimate:

For this target to be reached, two things need to happen: momentum will have to remain neutral or turn bearish, and price must remain at or below the 1 x 1 angle.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

$SPY Momentum and Trend

While daily momentum and market breadth indicators are showing signs of weakening, weekly trend and momentum have yet to show any signs of reversal:

Weekly Swing Time, however, alerts that all major averages are due for a trend reversal.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

$SPY Pattern, Trend and Market Breadth

The SPX is closing in on the March 1st high just as market breadth is getting overbought:

(Source: Market Breadth)

This suggests that, in the near term, the market may have trouble sustaining a continued move higher.

$SPY Trend and Momentum

The SPX remains momentum-less, stuck in a narrow trading range ahead of the FOMC meeting:

E-mini resistance at 2395/2400, support at 2350.

Monday, March 13, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

As mentioned at the end of last week, momentum is stuck in neutral ahead of the FOMC meeting, and the market finds itself in a narrow trading range:

E-mini resistance at 2395/2400, support at 2350.
The numbers are similar for the SPX:

Thursday, March 09, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Support at 2350 held, and the index is bouncing off oversold market breadth readings:

In addition, the e-mini broke above the 1 x 1 down-sloping angle.

Upside target 2395, support at 2350.
Momentum is neutral, meaning that the risk of whipsaw is high.

Wednesday, March 08, 2017

$SPY Pattern and Trend

Low VIX and continued complacency in the face of deteriorating market breadth usually leads to a ooooops moment:

Key SPX support at 2350.

Monday, March 06, 2017

$SPY Gap and Trend

As expected, the gap got filled and daily momentum remains neutral. Judging by VIX, the majority is expecting the sideways/up phase to continue:

Market breadth, however, is still declining, and price is below the daily 1 x 1 down-sloping angle from the March 1st high:

Sunday, March 05, 2017

$SPY Momentum and Trend

While daily momentum turned neutral, weekly momentum remained strong and will turn neutral only on a drop below 2360:

The picture for the NDX is very similar, weekly momentum will turn neutral on a drop below 5300:

Time-wise, both instruments are overextended and due for a pull-back.

The average retracement is 4% for both the SPX and NDX.

Thursday, March 02, 2017

$SPY Gap and Trend

On all three prior occasions the gap has either been filled, or at least the high preceding the gap has been tested:

This makes 2371.5 first support level.

$SPY Momentum and Trend

What a difference a speech makes, allowing the major indices to regain positive momentum !

(SPX Chart)

(NDX Chart)

In fact, the last day of negative momentum was in 2016, January 30th.

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