SPY closed at 773.50, up 1.55%, on 50.5 million shares.
The rebound from the September 16 low has restored the 759 pivot and carried
price directly into the short-channel ceiling at 773.85. The setup is
constructive, but not yet confirmed: price remains below the 779.37 swing high
while the daily channel oscillator is stretched at 96.51.
What Matters Next
·
Bullish confirmation: A daily close above
773.85 with volume at or above 45 million would turn resistance into support
and bring 779.37 into focus, followed by the weekly channel top near 789.45.
·
Bearish confirmation: A rejection from
773.85 followed by a close below 766.03 would favor a pullback toward 759.00,
then 754.05.
·
Current stance: Lean bullish, but with
low conviction until price resolves the channel test. The combination of
stronger volume and reclaimed support is positive; the extended oscillator
argues against chasing.
- 779.37 is
the line in the sand. A daily close above it invalidates the range read
entirely . A
close below 763.85 (EMA20) does the same on the downside.
- A
Trump–Xi summit on Sep 24 sits just before the Sep 25 expiry and presents a
headline gap risk that the 11% IV is not pricing.
