The rebound looked better on the marquee than under the hood. The S&P gained 0.41% and the Nasdaq 1.11%, but 324 of 503 S&P stocks fell. SPY and QQQ both traded above Friday’s key levels, then closed back below them. Volatility eased, while the 10-year yield closed at 5.136%—the level that now decides whether last week’s relief valve stays open.
·
SPY: 766.48, up 0.4%; intraday high
770.46. New pivot: 767.67.
·
QQQ: 718.36, up 1.2%; intraday high
724.55. Pivot: 719.48.
·
VIX: 18.44, down 8%; pivot 18.18 and
gamma wall 18.50.
·
10-year: 5.136%, after reaching 5.150%;
pivot 5.101%.
·
Oil: 98.24, just below its 98.30 pivot;
102.13 remains the average upswing target.
The takeaway: Monday was a bounce that did not stick. Falling
volatility helped, but rising yields, a firmer dollar, and weak breadth kept
the tape fragile.
Signal dashboard
Fear, but not capitulation
The CIT Balance of Power fell to 36, from 48 a week ago and
42 a month ago. Volatility and momentum are weighing on the reading;
equal-weight strength is the only component on the greed side. Historically,
fear readings have been a risk gauge rather than a timing signal. Friday’s
put/call ratio of 0.92 was neutral.
Two paths from here
·
Relief reopens: A 10-year close below the
5.101% pivot would ease pressure. SPY and QQQ are each within 0.2% of their
pivots, so little is required to turn their daily trends higher.
·
Relief closes: Holding the 10-year at or
above 5.136% through Tuesday would keep rates restrictive. An oil move toward
102.13 would add inflation pressure.
Rotation
The weekly sector signal remains risk-off, while asset
classes remain risk-on but fading. Staples moved into Leading with energy and
health care. Technology slipped into Lagging; industrials and materials
improved. The US remains the only leading world market, and large-cap growth
still leads style factors.
Price map to Friday, Oct 23
These are range estimates, not directional forecasts. About
two-thirds of closes historically land within one standard deviation and about
95% within two.
|
Market |
Close |
1σ range |
Key levels |
|
SPY |
766.48 |
755.02–778.11 |
760 support · 767.67 pivot · 775 gamma wall |
|
QQQ |
718.36 |
702.70–734.37 |
710 support ·
719.48 pivot · 729–730 resistance |
|
10-year yield |
5.136% |
5.012%–5.263% |
5.101% pivot · 5.209% target |
|
TLT |
79.46 |
78.15–80.79 |
78.90 target
· 79.92 pivot · 80 gamma wall |
|
Oil |
98.24 |
91.65–105.31 |
98.30 pivot · 102.13 target · 104.56 channel top |
|
VIX |
18.44 |
15.34–22.17 |
18.18 pivot ·
18.50 gamma wall · 23.83 target |
|
Bitcoin |
~81,920 |
77,680–86,380 |
81,691 pivot · 84,949 target |
Time targets and catalysts
Tuesday, Oct 20
·
The 10-year and TLT reach a Gann/Fibonacci watch
date; the yield’s downswing reaches 2σ.
·
QQQ’s daily downswing reaches 3σ.
·
Housing starts and building permits arrive at
5:30 AM PT; pending home sales at 7:00 AM PT; API crude inventories at 1:30 PM
PT.
·
Netflix reports after the close. Consensus is
about $0.82–$0.83 EPS on roughly $12.88B revenue; options imply a move near
9.6%.
Wednesday–Friday
·
Wednesday: VIX and Bitcoin watch dates;
SPY’s downswing reaches 1σ; oil’s upswing reaches 2σ. Tesla reports after the
close.
·
Thursday: The VIX upswing and 10-year
downswing reach 3σ. Meta reports after the close.
·
Friday: TLT’s downswing reaches its usual
length; oil and SPY have watch dates; the weekly rotation signal settles at the
close.
What to watch Tuesday
1.
SPY vs 767.67: A close above the pivot
turns the daily trend higher. The 760 put wall is first support.
2.
QQQ vs 719.48: A close above the pivot
would end an unusually long downswing. The 710 put wall is first support;
685.28 remains the average downswing target.
3.
10-year vs 5.136%: Holding at or above
this level keeps the relief valve closed. A close below 5.101% reopens it.
4.
VIX between 18.18 and 18.50: A close
below 18.18 turns the daily trend down. A move above 18.50 restores pressure.
5.
Oil vs 98.30: Holding the pivot keeps the
daily trend higher and leaves 102.13 in play.
The setup: Tuesday turns on three questions—do yields
retreat, do SPY and QQQ reclaim their pivots, and does oil stay contained? The
levels are close enough for one session to change the picture.
