The ticker tape was spitting bad news on a silver platter.
Yields blinked first, but Wall Street didn't give a damn.
By the closing bell, the air was thick with the smell of
smoke and panic. SPY took a hard right to the jaw down 1.1%, QQQ hit the
pavement for a 2.0% loss, and the VIX jumped ten percent like a startled cat. When
bonds rally, stocks fall, and volatility rises in the same afternoon, it is not
rate relief. It is money looking for cover.
The sector map told the same story. Staples, utilities, and
real estate moved into Improving. Health care entered Leading. Financials,
discretionary, industrials, materials, and communications remained Lagging.
Tech stayed in Leading, but it was heading southwest and losing ground on both
measures.
The long-term case is not broken. SPY remains above a rising
200-day line in a confirmed uptrend. Its daily and weekly swings turned down
only today. First-bar reversals happen in 31% of daily downswings and 54% of
weekly downswings. Still, the clocks are lining up on the same side.
Price Targets to Friday’s Close
These ranges measure size, not direction. They come from
comparable periods in each market’s current long-term phase. Roughly two-thirds
of closes land inside 1σ; about 95% land inside 2σ.
|
Market |
Close |
1σ to Friday |
2σ to Friday |
Levels inside the range |
|
SPY |
769.60 |
761.46–777.83 |
753.41–786.14 |
Put wall 772; pivot 777.82; average swing low 758.98 |
|
QQQ |
728.95 |
717.76–740.32 |
706.73–751.87 |
Put wall 730; average swing low 718.77; pivot 746.64 |
|
TLT |
78.89 |
77.97–79.82 |
77.06–80.76 |
Pivot 78.07; gamma wall and average swing high 80.00 |
|
10-year yield |
5.190% |
5.101%–5.280% |
5.014%–5.372% |
Pivot 5.235% |
|
Dollar index |
102.56 |
102.02–103.10 |
101.49–103.64 |
Pivot 102.30; average swing high 103.01 |
|
Oil |
95.17 |
90.62–99.95 |
86.28–104.98 |
Pivot 92.52; average swing high 101.36 |
|
VIX |
16.87 |
15.88–17.92 |
14.95–19.04 |
Average swing high 17.10; pivot 15.21 |
|
Bitcoin (Friday night) |
~81,670 |
78,760–84,680 |
75,960–87,800 |
Pivot 82,924; average swing low 77,198 |
SPY’s 777.82 pivot sits at the top of its 1σ range. To turn
the daily trend back up by Friday, buyers need two days better than average.
Time Targets
Thursday, October 15
·
QQQ’s daily downswing reaches 1σ at 5.4 days.
Beyond that, it is longer than most comparable downswings.
·
Bitcoin enters a double Gann window.
·
TLT, the 10-year yield, and the VIX also enter
timing windows.
Friday, October 16
·
TLT’s daily upswing and the 10-year yield’s
daily downswing both reach 1σ at about six days. The bond rally will be running
long.
·
TLT and the VIX enter daily windows. The VIX and
oil enter weekly windows.
·
The rotation read settles at the close.
What to Watch
1. SPY
at 761.46. A close below the bottom of the 1σ range—and below the 758.98
average swing low—would be larger than the usual weekly move. A close above
777.82 would cancel today’s turn.
2. QQQ
on Thursday. Its downswing reaches 1σ. The zig-zag reading says roughly
four in ten swings at this stage reach the average −10% target of 685.28 before
closing above the October 6 high.
3. VIX
at 17.10. A close above the average swing high would make this upswing
larger than usual.
4. The
10-year at 5.235%. A move back above the pivot turns the daily yield trend
up. Staying below it while stocks fall keeps the flight-to-safety case alive.
5. Friday’s
rotation close. Watch whether RISK-OFF holds. Discretionary (XLY) sits on
the border between Lagging and Improving. Technology (XLK) remains Leading but
is moving southwest.
The Tape Beneath the Tape
·
CPI: headline rose 0.6% month over month
and 3.7% year over year. Core rose 0.3% month over month, against 0.2%
expected, and 2.6% year over year. October hike odds jumped from 22% before the
release to about 45%–49% in the morning, then settled near 37%.
·
Beige Book: the read had a stagflationary
flavor—wholesale pass-through remained, consumers pushed back, and labor
weakened.
·
Bowman: she favored holding this month
and said there was time to wait. Stocks and bonds found support off the lows.
·
Rates and dollar: the 10-year initially
rose eight basis points to 5.30% after CPI. The 2-year stayed near its highs.
DXY traded around 102.7.
·
Corporate tape: Bank of America fell 7.9%
after a $1.21 billion fine and a trading miss. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock
beat. ASML guided to €14.2–€15.2 billion, and semiconductors sold off anyway.
Since the Close
·
Futures weakened: ESZ26 fell 1.16%; NQZ26
fell 2.10%.
·
Liquidia jumped 42.6% after hours. It
settled all pending United Therapeutics litigation for a net $380.7 million.
The move followed the September 30 patent ruling that had cut the shares 57%.
·
The policy crosscurrent remained.
Bowman’s patience fought the Beige Book’s hawkish read. October hike odds
settled near 37%.
·
Other markets: WTI traded near $95, Brent
above $105, gold at $4,117, and bitcoin fell more than 1%.
Tomorrow’s Decider
PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims arrive at 5:30 a.m.
PT. A hot PPI could tip the balance for October.
The market has its alibi ready. Now the data gets to test
it.
PS The latest Gann 9 and OT Fibonacci updates are out. Check them out for free!
