FOMC minutes read — December survives, and it's validated now, not just alive:
The September hike was unanimous, but the rationale split three ways: some cited containing energy price shocks (Warsh's channel made the minutes, but as one camp's argument), many called it risk-management insurance against sticky inflation, and a hawkish core sees demand-driven inflation — the campaign framing. The key line: "most participants" judged another hike "likely appropriate by year end." That's December, with no urgency signaled for October 27-28.The read, with the 10 AM auction: both tests broke our way — real demand met record supply at 5.30%, and the minutes validated the December path. One caution: markets are running hotter than the Committee — ~3 more hikes priced by next June (4.5-4.75%) vs the Fed's one-and-done, then hold until 2028 cuts. So the risk from here is the market being more hawkish than the Fed, not less. Next thing that could revive October: a materially hot core CPI on Oct 14.
Note of caution: the odds of peaceful settlement in Ukraine and Iran before year-end < 20%
