Market view: Risk assets remain constructive, but an
extended Nasdaq run, overbought Treasury yields, and deeply oversold long
Treasuries increase near-term reversal risk.
At a glance
|
Asset |
Last |
Daily |
Weekly |
Run (days / avg.) |
Combined (D / W) |
Next windows |
|
SPY |
777.32 |
🟢 up |
🟢 up |
above, 3 / 3.5 |
61 / 64 |
Oct 11, 17, 19 |
|
QQQ |
757.04 |
🟢 up |
🟢 up |
above, 4
/ 3.5 |
63 / 69 |
Oct 11, 17, 19 |
|
VIX |
15.18 |
🔴 down |
🟢 up |
below, 4 / 3.7 |
46 / 48 |
Oct 8, 10, 12 |
|
10-year
Treasury yield (TNX) |
5.28% |
🟢 up |
🟢 up |
above, 1 / 3.1 |
61 / 77 |
Oct 12, 18, 20 |
|
U.S. dollar
(DXY) |
102.28 |
🟢 up |
🟢 up |
above, 1 / 3.6 |
68 / 68 |
Oct 10, 12, 13 |
|
Crude oil (CL) |
88.26 |
🔴 down |
🔴 down |
below, 3 / 3.2 |
40 / 45 |
Oct 12, 17, 23 |
|
Long
Treasuries (TLT) |
77.15 |
🔴 down |
🔴 down |
below, 10
/ 3.3 |
32 / 19 |
Oct 12, 15, 20 |
How to read this report: Up means price is above a
rising trendline; down means price is below a falling trendline. RR Oscillator,
RSI, and Combined readings run from 0 to 100: 70 or higher is overbought, while
30 or lower is oversold. Time windows are calendar dates that flag a higher
probability of a turn—not a guaranteed reversal. If a window falls on a
weekend, monitor the surrounding trading days.
S&P 500 (SPY): uptrend on both time frames
SPY is in a daily uptrend, in the 3rd day above a
rising trendline (774.91, 0.3% below the price). Runs above the daily
trendline have averaged 3.5 days. On the weekly chart it has just begun an
uptrend, in its first week above a rising trendline.
The oscillators are neutral: RR 59, RSI 63 and Combined 61
daily; Combined 64 weekly.
Levels to watch: the channel top
at 787 (+1.3%) above; the trendline at 775 and support
at 756 (−2.7%) below.
Options: call open interest and the gamma wall are
at 785, max pain at 774, the largest put open interest
at 770 and the put wall at 767. The price is above the gamma
flip at 766, where dealer hedging tends to dampen moves. Options are
pricing about ±1.7% by Oct 16, from 764 to 790.
Time windows (counted from the Apr 8 low and the Oct 6
high)
- Daily: Oct
11 (Gann 186 days from the low, Fibonacci 5 from the high), Oct
17 (Gann and Lucas 11 days from the high), Oct 19 (Gann and
Fibonacci 13 days from the high), then Oct 24 (Lucas 18 days from the high
and 199 from the low).
- Weekly: Nov
6 (Gann 82 weeks from the low), Nov 11 (Fibonacci 5 weeks from the high),
Nov 25 (Lucas 7 weeks), then a cluster on Dec 23 (Gann and Lucas
11 weeks from the high) and Jan 6 (Gann and Fibonacci 13 weeks
from the high).
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): the daily run is getting long
QQQ is in a daily uptrend, in the 4th day above a
rising trendline, past the 3.5-day average for such runs. On the
weekly chart it is in the 3rd week above a rising trendline, close to the
3.5-week average.
RSI is 71, above the overbought line, with Combined 63
daily and 69 weekly.
Levels: the channel top at 774 (+2.3%) above;
the trendline at 755 and support at 729 (−3.7%) below.
Options: the price sits just above 760, the
largest call open interest and the gamma wall. The put wall is at 754, and
max pain and the largest put open interest are at 750. The expected move
is ±2.4% by Oct 16, from 739 to 775.
Time windows: QQQ's 6-month low and high fell on the
same days as SPY's, so its windows match: daily on Oct 11, 17 and 19;
weekly on Nov 6, Nov 11, Dec 23 and Jan 6.
Volatility (VIX): the time frames disagree
The VIX is in a daily downtrend, in the 4th day
below a falling trendline, past its 3.7-day average. On the weekly chart it is
in an uptrend, in its 2nd week above a rising trendline. The oscillators
are neutral, near 46.
Levels: the trendline at 15.35 just above,
then the channel top at 18.94; support at 13.48 (−11.2%).
Time windows (counted from the Sep 4 low and the Jun 9
high): daily on Oct 8 (Gann and Fibonacci 34 days from the low), Oct
10 (Gann and Lucas 123 days from the high), Oct 12 and Oct 15. Weekly on Oct 9,
Oct 16 and Nov 6.
10-year yield (TNX): weekly oscillators overbought
The yield is in a daily uptrend, on its first day
above a rising trendline, and on the weekly chart in the 3rd week above a
rising trendline.
The weekly oscillators are the hottest on the
board: RSI 84, and Combined 77, overbought.
Levels: the channel top at 5.39% (+2.1%)
above; support at 5.18% (−1.9%) below.
Time windows (counted
from the April 17 low and the October 7 high, set at the October 7 close):
daily on October 12 (Fibonacci 5 days from the high, Gann 178 from the low), October
18 (Gann and Lucas 11 days from the high), and October 20 (Gann and Fibonacci
13 days from the high). Weekly on October 30, November 11, and December 4.
U.S. dollar (DXY): back above its trendline
The dollar is in a daily uptrend, on its first day
above a rising trendline, and in the 3rd week above a rising weekly
trendline. Combined is 68 on both time frames, close to overbought.
Levels: a tight range. The channel top
at 102.79 (+0.5%) above; the trendline at 102.05 and
support at 101.09 below.
Time windows (counted from the Apr 17 low and the Oct 5
high): daily on Oct 10 (Fibonacci 5 days from the high), Oct 12 (Lucas 7), Oct
13 (Fibonacci 8) and Oct 16 (Gann and Lucas 11). Weekly on Oct 23 (Gann 38
weeks from the low and 92 from the high) and Nov 13.
Crude oil (CL): downtrend on both time frames
Oil is in a daily downtrend, in the 3rd day below
a falling trendline, and in the 2nd week below a falling weekly trendline.
The oscillators lean low: RSI 38, Combined 40.
Levels: the trendline at 89.54 (+1.5%) and
the channel top at 97.59 above; support at 82.28 (−6.8%)
below.
Time windows (counted from the Jul 2 low and the Apr 30
high): daily on Oct 12 (Gann 102 days from the low and 165 from the high), Oct
17 and Oct 23. Weekly on Oct 16, Oct 23, and Nov 5 (Gann and
Fibonacci 34 weeks from the high).
Spotlight: long Treasuries (TLT) — stretched
TLT is in its 10th day below a falling daily trendline. Such
runs have averaged 3.3 days, making this move more than three standard
deviations longer than average—an extreme reading compared with nearly every
run in the data. On the weekly chart, TLT is in its third week below a falling
trendline.
The oscillators are deeply oversold: daily RSI is 20; on the
weekly chart, RR is 17, RSI is 21, and Combined is 19. The daily oscillator issued
a buy signal on October 6.
Levels: the trendline at 77.28 is right at
the price, then the channel top at 78.30; support
at 76.29 (−1.1%). In options, the put wall is at 77 and max
pain at 79. The expected move is ±2.2% by Oct 16.
Time windows: TLT
made its six-month and two-year low on October 7, so new windows begin from that
date. Daily windows fall on October 12 (Fibonacci 5 days), October 15 (Fibonacci
8), October 18 (Gann and Lucas 11), and October 20 (Gann and Fibonacci 13).
Weekly windows fall on November 6, November 11 (Fibonacci 5 weeks), and November
25 (Lucas 7 weeks).
Key dates ahead
1. Stocks — October 17–19: SPY and QQQ have clustered Gann, Fibonacci,
and Lucas windows 11–13 days from their October 6 highs. QQQ’s daily run is
already beyond its average and RSI is overbought; watch for either a breakout
continuation or momentum rollover.
2. Long
Treasuries: TLT has spent 10
days below its trendline amid oversold readings and a fresh oscillator buy
signal. A close above 77.28 would support a reversal; a break below 76.29 would
weaken that case.
3. Treasury
yields: Weekly Combined oscillator is 77. Watch for a rollover in yields
alongside confirmation from TLT.
4. VIX —
October 8: A Gann and Fibonacci window arrives 34 days from the September
low while the daily and weekly trends disagree. Watch for confirmation from a
break of 15.35 or renewed weakness toward 13.48.
Methodology:
OT Trend supplies trendlines, run lengths, oscillators, levels, and options
data. Gann 9 and OT Fibonacci supply the timing windows. Gann, Fibonacci, and
Lucas windows are calendar-based timing intervals used to identify dates with a
higher probability of a turn.
For information only; not investment advice. Timing
windows indicate probability, not certainty. Conduct your own research and
manage risk appropriately.
Data and indicators as of the October 7, 2026.
